Severe Weather Threat Apr 10-14

An Active Severe Weather Pattern Should Continue Into D5-6 From The Mid/Lower-Ms Valley Ewd Towards The S Atlantic Coast.

However...Confidence Is Too Low Attm To Highlight Severe
Probabilities Aoa 30 Percent Beyond D4. Discrepancies Noted In D2-3 Over Models Handling Of The Wrn Conus Upper-Level Trough And Associated Shortwave Impulses Become Increasingly Problematic During The Rest Of The Week.

With Preceding Days Featuring Elevated Mixed Layers That Will
Contribute To Steep Mid-Level Lapse Rates...Along With Subsequent
Advection Of A Wrn Gulf Low-Level Moisture Plume...Setup Should
Yield A Moderately Unstable Air Mass Ahead Of A Cold Front That Will
Push Ewd And Eventually Exit The Atlantic Coast.

Strong Low/Mid-Level S/Swlys Downstream Of A Lead Shortwave Impulse Invof Cntrl Plains Should Yield A Favorable Setup For All Severe Hazards Potentially Occurring On D4.

Beyond This Time Frame...Substantial Variation And Run-To-Run Inconsistency Occurs With The Handling/Timing Of This Impulse And Especially With An Upstream Vort Max In The Base Of The Ejecting Trough.


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