Severe Weather Outlook July 16 Tuesday

Upper-Air Pattern Over Most Of Conus Is Dominated By Four Features:

1. Large Anticyclone Now Centered Over Nrn Indiana...And Fcst To
Drift Wwd Through Period. Associated Ridging Will Continue To
Extend Wwd Across Central Plains And Central Rockies To Great
Basin...Then Swwd Across Lower Co River Valley Region.

2. Persistent But Slowly Filling Cyclone...Now Moving Wwd Across Srn
High Plains...And Fcst To Turn Swwd To Near Elp By 12z.

3. Formerly Cut-Off Low Offshore Nrn Ca...Which Should Eject Newd
Over Ore Coast By 12z As Another Cyclone Digs Swd From Gulf Of Ak
Across Nern Pac.

4. Gently Cyclonic Flow Across Canadian Border Region From Mt-Ls ...Well S Of Major Deep-Layer Cyclone Covering Much Of Mainland
Nunavut. Stg Shortwave Trough Now Ejecting Newd Across Mb Will
Become Absorbed In Broader Gyre As It Moves Over Wrn/Nrn Hudson Bay.

Coastal Va/Nc/Sc To Piedmont...

Gradual Development Of Widely Scattered To Scattered Tstms Is Expected Late Morning Through Mid-Aftn.

Relatively Concentrated Threat May Develop Within This Broader 5%
Outlook Area...For Either Hail Or Wind. However...Given Very Diffuse
Nature Of Low-Level Features And Lack Of Substantial Mesoscale Foci Attm...Will Maintain Broader Areas Of Mrgl Probabilities For Now.

Nrn Upper Midwest...

Widely Scattered To Scattered Tstms May Develop This Aftn Invof
Front. Isolated Large Hail And Damaging Gusts Are Possible. Isolated Hail Near Svr Limits Also Will Be Possible After Dark And Mainly N Of Front...In Regime Of Elevated Low-Level Waa. This Environment Should Be Too Displaced From Llj...Extending From Central Plains To Mn...For Organized Overnight Svr Threat.

Interior Pac Nw...

Per Latest Spc Fire Wx Outlook...Dry Tstms Are Probable Across
Portions Nern Ore...Sern Wa And Wrn Id This Afternoon...With
Relatively Fast-Moving Cells Offering Little Rainfall At Any Given
Location...Will Introduce Mrgl Probabilities For Damaging Tstm
Gusts.


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