Near Term Update


NEAR TERM [Tonight]...
The regional surface analysis from 20 UTC showed a cold front
entering the western portions of our forecast area, accompanied by
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms. Although there wasn`t
much lightning, unusually strong winds not far above the surface
were mixing down as strong gusts. (The 2030 UTC VAD Wind Profile
from Fort Rucker- KEOX, had winds of 60 KT at only 2,000 ft AGL)
The threat of marginally damaging wind gusts (around 50 KT) will
likely continue into this evening, though all of the latest NWP
guidance indicates a downward trend in the overall threat after
sunset. An isolated tornado or two can`t be ruled out, given the
impressive shear magnitudes from 0 to 1 km, but the main threat is
straight line wind gusts. It`s doubtful that damaging winds will
make it all the way to our eastern zones, though the rain probably

In addition to the severe storm potential, we will be dealing with
other potential threats as well. Wind gusts outside of showers and
thunderstorms will continue to reach 35 to 45 MPH, especially in
those areas that get some breaks in the clouds. These gusts will
diminish with sunset. Strong onshore winds have cause high surf,
dangerous rip currents, and tides of 1 to 2 feet above normal. All
these threats will subside later tonight as the cold front passes
through and cause a wind shift to the northwest.

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