NEAR TERM [Tonight]...
Everything is on track. Movement and timing of the frontal
passage through the area tonight has been consistent from model
run to model run. Forecast rainfall totals in the TAE CWA however
are coming in lighter than previously forecast and QPF grids were
adjusted accordingly to the HPC guidance. Though the front had
been well connected to the Eastern Pacific moisture source, most
recent WV loops are showing good subsidence and drying behind the
vorticity center over Texas helping to limit the rainfall totals.
No thunderstorm activity has been noted today and none is expected
overnight in this very stable over-running event. Currently a
local vort max in the flow is helping to enhance some light
precipitation over Southeast Alabama and portions of SW Georgia.
But this will rapidly advect northeast out of the area by sunset.
A second impulse is forecast to race up the front after midnight
concurrently with the deepening of a surface low over north
Georgia. This event will provide the bulk of limited amount of
precipitation to the area overnight behind the cold front as it
finally speeds up to the east. Temperatures will remain fairly
warm over night again ahead of the front.
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