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Near Term Update

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
The large scale longwave split flow pattern is highlighted by a
positively tilted trough from Cntrl Ontario SWWD thru Cntrl Plains
to closed low over NRN Baja CA and ridges over the FL Peninsula and
Caribbean and the Pacific NW. A 180-200 kt upper jet was noted at
250 mb stretching from the TX Panhandle northeastward to Southern
New England. A series of srn stream impulses were ejecting Ewd from
Baja low to across desert SW. At surface, a slow moving cold front
was located from a low off SC Coast SWWD across E/Central GA, to Ern
Big Bend and across Gulf of Mex. Aftn area Obs show Onshore winds
remaining across only SE most Big Bend. Radar shows ample light rain
or sprinkles in the warm sector east of the front (east of a line
from Ben hill county thru perry) with mainly drizzle or no precip
northwest of it.

During tonight, as WRN upper ridge progresses and amplify ewd to
over Intermountain West, downstream Cntrl Conus trough will
continue to dig slowly allowing the right entrance region of upper
jet to approach. We will see somewhat more QG forcing as shortwave
impulses track Ewd across the deep south and NRN Gulf. Ahead of this
system, increased lift combined with ample moisture already in place
will bring conveyor belt of increasing rainfall and overcast skies
from SW-NE especially along western waters and Panhandle coast. The
cold front will work slowly SEWD into N/CNTRL FL overnight yield
cool overrunning event before likely stalling over central FL on
Friday. A wave is expected to develop on the front and ride newd in
response to passing shortwaves increasing rain ahead of the front
but this will be mainly SE of our area. Then, after midnight, rain
assocd with above upper systems begins to impact local area from
SW-NE.

Weak Forcing for ascent, poor lapse rates and meager instability via
relatively warm temps aloft will preclude thunderstorm development.
Skies will be overcast behind the front. We are looking at 60-20%
for 00z-06z and 70-40% 06z-12z mainly W-E pop gradient. RAP13 07z
sounding shows 1.33 inch PWAT and strong SW flow from H85 all the
way up providing am and deep return Gulf flow. Min temps tonight
will remain above normal with abundant cloud cover forecast to
continue. Expect low-mid 40s SE AL to low-mid 50s SE Big Bend.


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