Near Term Update

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
A cold front should slowly push southeast into the area overnight
with rain chances increasing this evening in the northwest part of
the forecast area. The vast majority of model guidance shows the
areal coverage and intensity of precipitation dwindling overnight as
a weak surface low develops northeast into the Carolinas and away
from the area. As such, highest PoPs were concentrated northwest
(but kept in the "chance" range), with a dry forecast through 12z to
the southeast of a VLD-TLH-AAF line. As dewpoints in the low-mid 60s
(as sampled by coastal and buoy observations) continue to advect
into the area and over slightly cooler shelf surface waters, we
could see some advection fog develop, particularly near PAM and to
the east where SSTs are cooler. Patchy fog was included over land
areas to the southeast of where rain would be occurring.

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