Near Term Update

Posted: Thu 4:19 PM, Dec 27, 2012

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Forecast this afternoon continues pretty much on track, matching
the updated maximum temperature forecast we entered earlier
today. For tonight`s freeze concerns, we issued a Freeze Warning
for the Eastern Big Bend in coordination with TBW and JAX. Whether
the freeze over this area actually occurs depends on the extent of
the advection of a moisture plume at the cirrus level between
400-200mb overnight. If the cirrus is too thick and provides a
radiational lid, temperatures may remain above freezing. However
the MAV wants to take the area down as low as 26 degrees. So we
blended the previous forecast with the MAV, MET, and ECMWF MOS
which keeps the minimum temperature around 30 degrees, and long
enough to meet Freeze Warning criteria.