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Near Term Update

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
The 18 UTC regional surface analysis showed a ridge from the west
Atlantic through South GA, where it terminated. Local radars showed
scattered, small, light showers across north FL, and even along the
FL Big Bend sea breeze front in Taylor and Dixie Counties. Vapor
imagery and upper air data showed a fairly strong 500 mb ridge over
the Southeast, with plenty of dry air above a subsidence inversion
at 800 mb (about 6,700 ft at Tallahassee). The showers will
dissipate by this evening as low layer lapse rates weaken. The
latest high resolution NWP guidance is showing a high probability of
fog overnight, as is GFS & NAM MOS, so we may need to issue a dense
fog advisory later this evening. Lows will once again be about
10 degrees above average.


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