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Near Term Update

Region wide first FROST expected Friday morning...

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The 17 UTC regional surface analysis showed a 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE centered along the AR-MS border, and this high will be
propagating southeastward through Friday morning. Vapor imagery and
upper AIR data showed the long wave TROUGH that has been over our
forecast area the past FEW days was now just off the U.S. east
coast, providing our region with deep northwest FLOW. This dry,
sinking air means the entire TROPOSPHERE will be very dry overnight,
allowing for strong radiational cooling. All of the latest NWP
guidance shows CALM winds here overnight, which will prevent
overturning of the near-surface layer...further contributing to a
long NIGHT of cooling. The 12 UTC GFS and NAM MOS were a degree
warmer than 12 hours ago, but averaging out the various solutions
and these recent TEMPERATURE "wiggles", lows will REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH the MID 30s
at most of the normally coldest sites (inland and away from the
cities).

A few spots could briefly reach freezing. Although the air
temperature at 2 meters will remain just above freezing, the
temperatures at the ground may in fact reach freezing, allowing some
frost to form. Unfortunately we can`t account for the MICROSCALE
climates that can cause variability from neighborhood to
neighborhood, but large open yards and fields, especially those in
LOW-lying areas away from the cities and Gulf of Mexico, have the
greatest CHANCE of frost forming. The first frost of the season is
always a concern to those with sensitive vegetation, so we are
issuing a frost ADVISORY for tonight. It`s for our entire forecast
area, but sites along the beaches and in the cities are unlikely to
get frost.


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