May 18, 2013
LONG TERM...
(Sunday NIGHT through next Thursday) If the consensus of the NWP
guidance is correct (ignoring the operational 12 UTC GFS), the
Gulf low will LIKELY have little direct impact on our weather as
it moves westward toward the Northwest Gulf Coast next week. If this
forecast trend continues into the 00 UTC model runs, we will have
to increase our MAX temperatures dramatically from our previous
forecast as this large scale weather patter would favor hot,
relatively dry weather with low PoP. We haven`t made these
adjustments to our forecast yet since this 12 UTC model cycle was
really the first to establish this new trend, and the models could
yet flip flop in subsequent runs. We would prefer to see the
00 UTC model runs before committing to this solution. This is not
to say that everyone in our area should ignore this system, as
this forecast could change again in subsequent model runs.
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