LONG TERM (Sunday through next Thursday)...The large scale longwave
pattern commences rather amplified highlighted by TROUGH over WRN
states, RIDGE over NRN/CNTRL Rockies and Wrn Plains, a trough
amplifying over ERN states from Canada SWD to Nrn Gulf states and a
nearly zonal FLOW swd to local area. with SRN stream quite strong, a
series of short waves will drop southward into the wrn trough axis,
then weaken as they HEAD rapidly east or northeast across the
eastern U.S. At surface, in the WAKE of passing dry cold front,
strong 1032mb high builds SEWD from Plains providing a noticeably
colder and drier airmass. A light advective freeze is LIKELY inland
early Sun and Mon mornings but on first morning this will be
contingent on wind speeds assocd with high which will still be in
the LWR Ms Valley and doesnt favor ideal radiational cooling. Winds
however, will make it feel colder and expect bone dry RH will favor
fire WX hazards. By SUNRISE Monday, high will be almost overhead
with much lighter winds and better CHANCE for nearly ideal
radiational cooling, and cant totally discount a hard freeze for
some areas.

Like our previous cold snaps this WINTER, it will be short lived as
by Sun AFTN, the longwave pattern is expected to become more
progressive. Wrn trough amplifies over Desert SW while UPSTREAM
ridge moves rapidly EWD with axis over Wrn Gulf region by Sun night
or early Mon. This kicks ern trough into Wrn Atlc. By Mon aftn,
ridge axis has shifted rapidly ewd into extreme Wrn Atlc but
increasingly dampens in response to strong Nrn stream troughing. The
result is semi-zonal flow and the start of progressively moderating
temperatures overspreading NW Gulf region. At surface, ridge of high
pressure will nudge off SE states and into Wrn Atlc. The low level
flow veers allowing more MOISTURE back into local region. Aloft,
weak ridging to zonal flow will persist Tuesday into Thursday. At
surface, next front aided by passing SHORTWAVE reaches Wrn Gulf by
end of period and with local area in warm sector, small chance of
rain per slower GFS. If EURO verifies, front could REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH area on
Wed. With model discrepancies this far out, took a blend for my
timing and POP numbers.

Will go with WDLY SCT-lo sct POPS Tues THRU Wed, and wdly sct
on Thurs. Otherwise NIL pops. With progressive pattern expect sharp
daily TEMP changes. Good chance of a a light freeze both sun/Mon
around sunrise with Mins both at least 10 degrees below CLIMO. MAX
temp Sun also around 10 degrees below NORMAL. Then MIN/max temps
shoot up to around climo Mon/Mon night and around 10 degrees above
climo Tues thru Thur. (AVG inland climo is 41/66 degrees).