LONG TERM [Wednesday through Saturday]...
The period begins on Wednesday morning with some model
disagreement about the amplification of the trough ridge pattern.
The GFS and ECMWF both start with a trough over the NErn US, and a
ridge over the mid-west and a trough over the SWrn US west with a
short wave impulse near SW TX. The trough to the west moves to the
central US by Thursday morning and the Ern US over Thursday night
to Friday morning. The ECMWF, however, is more amplified than the
GFS, so it is also more aggressive with rain chances. The timing
by Friday is also a little off between the two models. The GFS its
weaker trough further east by Friday morning, but moves the system
through more slowly. By Saturday morning, both models show another
upper level ridge over the SErn US and a more amplified trough
over the SW US. The amplified trough to the west will move into
the mid-west US by Sunday morning. The ECMWF has a stronger low
once again, and higher rain chances ahead of the system.
The forecast used is a blend of the GFS, ECMWF, and HPC guidance
with a little more weight toward the GFS and its timing of the
system moving through on Thursday. Neither of the models are
forecasting particularly colder air masses to enter our region
through the forecast period. In fact, max temps will be in the
upper 60s to mid 70s (warmest in the Ern FL Big Bend), continuing
the above average temperatures we`ve had so far this winter. Lows
will also be above normal, staying in the upper 40s to mid 50s
through the period.