Long Term Update

LONG TERM [Wednesday through Sunday]...
The models continue in general agreement on the timing of the next
frontal system, which is expected to move through the area on
Wednesday. There continues to be some disagreement on the strength
of the upper level trough with the 27/00z Euro and 27/12z NAM
keeping more energy in the southern portion of the trough with a
fairly strong system overall for the local area. Meanwhile, the
27/12z GFS is slightly more strung out and weaker. If the stronger
solutions verify, then the threat of severe storms will increase
across the area on Wednesday afternoon with 60+ knot 850 mb winds
forecast by the 00z Euro and even stronger low level winds
forecast by the 12z NAM at the end of its run. The weaker GFS
run has 50-55 knot 850 mb winds. However, instability will likely
be a limiting factor with poor mid-level lapse rates forecast. The
main threat appears to be a low-topped squall line with the
potential for damaging winds.

Once the front clears the area late on Wednesday, dry and
seasonably cool conditions will prevail in its wake for the
remainder of the period with no significant weather expected.


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