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Long Term Update

LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Monday]...
The extended forecast period will be marked by a more amplified flow
pattern as a shortwave currently south of the Aleutian Islands in
the north Pacific digs southeast out of the Canadian prairies on
Thursday and Friday. Surface cyclogenesis initially occurs ahead of
the digging wave over the Mid-South and then develops more rapidly
along the east coast later Friday and Saturday - pushing a cold
front through the Gulf coast region. Generally the global models are
within 12 hours of each other on the timing of the front (centered
around 00z Saturday). However, they disagree on the strength of the
low-level cold air advection and how far south the surface high
pressure center gets. The 21.12z GFS is an outlier in this regard,
keeping the high center mostly north of the Ohio River and never
cooling 850mb temperatures below 5-6C in our area. However, the
21.12z runs of the UKMET, CMC, and ECMWF all show the high getting
much closer to the Gulf coast with 850mb temperatures dipping below
0C. More confidence lies in the latter solution at this time, which
would mean a chilly weekend.


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