Long Term Update

LONG TERM (Monday through next Thursday)...
The latest global models forecast a progressive pattern over the
CONUS. The period begins with a deep 500mb long wave trough over the
eastern CONUS, and plenty of very dry arctic air at the surface.
Heights will recover later in the week as the arctic air modifies
ahead of the next trough over the central CONUS. Locally, a dry cold
front will pass south through our forecast area late Monday or early
Tuesday, setting up a breezy, cool day Tuesday, and a possible
freeze Wednesday morning. Just how cold it gets remains unclear, as
the models still differ on the trajectory of coldest air and the
surface high position. (The CMC continues to be the coldest model,
taking the core of the coldest air more directly southward than the
GFS or ECMWF). Temperatures will moderate quickly later in the week,
but not reach the abnormally warm levels we`ve experienced
recently.


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