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Long Term Update

LONG TERM [Wednesday Night through Sunday]...
Stagnant upper flow pattern is finally forecast to change by
mid-week as a ridge builds into west coast and pushes the mean
trough axis to the east. As part of this transition, models are in
good agreement that an upper low will move from Texas to the
Mississippi River Wednesday night and Thursday morning. This upper
energy will finally push the quasi-stationary frontal boundary
(currently to our north) well into the forecast area. Weak low
pressure will develop along the front Thursday morning and move
across north Florida. Expect to see an area of overrunning precip
move across the area as well on Thursday in association with this
system.

A cooler airmass will move into the region in the wake of the cold
front. However, temperatures are only expected to fall back to near
seasonal norms. The cool surface high is expected to become
stretched east-west and centered just north of the region moving
into next weekend. This will result in a pretty healthy easterly
flow across the region, which will bring some modest moisture
return, and possibly some isolated showers for the eastern half of
the forecast area.


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