Long Term Update

LONG TERM [Tuesday Night through Saturday]...
As has been the case the past few nights, the extended forecast
remains low confidence with models lacking consistency. The good
news is that there appears to be some convergence on a common
solution, which lends for a bit higher confidence tonight.

With broad, deep southwesterly flow expected for much of the next
work week - roughly paralleling a cold front - the front in
question should be relatively slow moving. Although the details
differ, the GFS and ECMWF both show the front traversing the
forecast area from late Tuesday to Thursday. This would be
associated with mostly cloudy skies and chances for some showers.
Projected lifted indices and Showalter indices remain in positive
territory, so thunderstorms are not expected. After Thursday, the
models indicate that the front may stall near the southeast corner
of our area, with perhaps some weak cyclogenesis along the stalled
front over the weekend. This could bring some additional light
showers to the area, but the confidence in the forecast beyond
Thursday is fairly low.

In summary: we are expecting a return to near-normal temperatures
with periodic chances for some light showers in the extended, but
the details have yet to be sorted out.


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