Long Term Update

LONG TERM [Sunday through Thursday]...
The period will begin with another Sfc Low exiting our region
quickly to the NE with a strong and cold Ridge of High Pressure
building in from the NW. This Ridge is expected to strengthen to
between 1030 and 1035mb and will be situated right over the CWA on
Sunday and Monday. This will set the stage for a possible short
duration light freeze on Sunday morning, with a likely long
duration light freeze (with a poss. Hard Freeze in some colder
locations) for Monday morning. Daytime highs on Sun. and Mon. will
also be held down several degrees below climo. For the remainder
of the period, however, an extended period of unsettled conditions
appears likely, as a series of weak waves of low pressure ride
E-NE along an elongated boundary. This boundary will be fairly
close to stationary over our CWA Mon. Night through Wed. Night, as
it will be essentially trapped between a strong Upper Ridge over
the SE Gulf of Mexico, and a weak Upper Trof swinging in from the
NW. At this time, this setup would favor periods of beneficial
rain over our area, with any Tstms appearing unlikely. It should
be noted, however, that the GFS and CMC are in good agreement with
this scenario (which we are fcsting), while the past 2 runs of the
ECMWF are much slower with moisture advection, holding off the
next batch of rain until Wed. Night and Thurs.


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