Long Term Update

LONG TERM [Thursday through Monday]...
For now anyway, the 00 UTC GFS and ECMWF runs have shown much better
run-to-run consistency and consistency with each other for this
model cycle. After a fairly amplified trough translates quickly
eastward across the eastern CONUS mid to late week, the 500 mb
height field will flatten considerably over the weekend.
Re-amplification will quickly take place early next week as a strong
ridge develops over the eastern CONUS.

The GFS & ECMWF are in remarkably good agreement in the timing and
strength of the next cold front passage, scheduled for Thursday.
This front will be accompanied by a good chance of rain, then
clearing skies and cooler weather Friday and into the weekend.
(There may even be a light freeze or at least some frost this
weekend, most likely Saturday morning). Temperatures will moderate
to near average levels Sunday and Monday.


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