May 18, 2013
LONG TERM [Saturday through Thursday]...
This should be an active period with several systems impacting
the Gulf Coast states. Overall mid- range model consistency has
been poor and therefore confidence in this forecast is below
normal. It will start out pleasant enough with the forecast area
under the influence of deep layer ridging. This will keep us warm
through the weekend with highs in the low to mid 70s both days and
only slight rain chances. The initial front to approach the area
was progged by the current GFS and 12/12Z run of the Euro to stall
north of the area. The new Euro blows it on through. Either way,
the next system will follow closely. Whether this manifests itself
as another frontal passage per the GFS or as a Gulf low coming
ashore (per Euro) remains to be seem. We do show somewhat higher
PoPs for the Sunday night through Tuesday time frame, but details
will have to await better model consensus. It does look like the
system will be east of the area by Wednesday with dry and windy
weather to follow for the middle of next week.
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