Long Term Update

LONG TERM [Wednesday through Sunday]...
The large scale extended longwave pattern commences relatively
amplified with ridging over Wrn states, troughing over Ern states
and ridging over extreme Wrn Atlc. Strong upper jet seen to our NW
and a mid level disturbance will move across the Gulf Coast states
Wed into Wed night. At surface, low over Canadian Maritimes with
cold front SSW down extreme wrn Atlc, Cntrl FL and into SE Gulf of
Mex. Upstream elongated high from Great Lakes SWWD to Ern TX.
Locally altho front well east of local area, passing shortwave will
induce cyclogenesis and a weak wave along front off of NE FL/SE GA
border to stall front. As a result of shortwave and stalled front,
post frontal clouds, overunning rain or drizzle persists into Wed
aftn, especially Ern counties, before ending from NW-SE as H85
trough exits ewd. Still, even with these clouds, CAA will yield a
cooling back down to seasonal normals thru Wed night before temps
begin to rise again.

Exiting impulse finally kicks surface low and front well east with
subsidence and ridging building quickly ewd Thurs thru Fri.
So expect a brief period of relatively cloudless skies and warmer
days. By Sat, next upstream system develops and moves NEWD into
upper midwest on Sat. Assocd with this system, front dragged into
Wrn Gulf on Sat and towards NE Gulf into Sun with increasing moist
onshore Gulf return flow and quickly modifying temps. ECMWF about
3-6 hrs slower than GFS with front, otherwise models in good
agreement with late period forecast. Also another impulse, albeit
weaker than previous one moves across. This brings another shot of
rain over weekend. In sum, even if models are too bullish, they all
reflect a gloomy extended period for majority of period with milder
nights and cooler days.

Will go with low-high sct pops Tues night, low-mid sct Wed, wdly
sct-low sct Wed night, nil POPs Thurs thru Sat and low-mid sct pops
Sat night and Sun. Under persistent clouds min temps to remain 5 to
10 degrees above normal Tues night dropping to around normal
Wed-Thurs nights then rising to 5 to 8 degrees above climo Fri and
Sat nights ahead of next front. Max temps will commence 5 to 7
degrees below normal under rainy Wed, then inch up to climo by Fri
rising up to to 5 to 8 degrees above climo Sat and Sun. (AVG inland
min/max is 41/64 degrees).


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