Long Term Update

LONG TERM [Saturday through Wednesday]...
The extended period begins under a rather zonal upper level flow
regime. This begins to change on Sunday as a short wave dives into
the Plains, eventually developing into a potent trough expected to
impact the southeast some time early next week. At the surface,
nearer to the more sensible weather, high pressure remains in
control through the weekend. This coupling with the zonal flow
aloft, will provide the local area with generally dry conditions
and warmer than average high temperatures. As the upper trough
amplifies and moves east, the ridge will be shunted east as a cold
front approaches the region. At this time it appears the front
will pass through the Tri-State region through the day/night
Monday, likely exiting our local area by Tuesday morning. It is
uncertain just how organized this front will be, or how much rain
it will bring, but it will certainly be the best chance for rain
we have seen in quite some time. In it`s wake, cooler temperatures
and a return to dry conditions are in store.


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