Long Term Update

LONG TERM [Friday through Tuesday]...
The extended forecast period still looks to be dominated by
mostly zonal flow over the continental US, with a gradually
building ridge over the Southeast. 500mb HEIGHT changes over the
period in question are approximately +30 to +40 meters. This trend
combined with a weak low-level WAA pattern will favor gradually
warming temperatures, as well as a lack of large scale forcing -
which spells a dry and SUNNY forecast for the area. Confidence is
fairly high in the fundamentals of the forecast in this time
frame, with ECMWF ENSEMBLE normalized standard deviation of
various weather elements less than 1 (which indicates less
variability among ensemble members compared with the spread over
the past 30 days). Both the GFS Ensemble and ECMWF Ensemble means
bring 850mb temperatures up to +10 to +11C by Sunday and Monday,
which would typically correspond to highs in the upper 70s on
well-mixed, sunny days. This is only a degree or two higher than
the latest MEX and ECMWF MOS guidance, but given greater than
normal confidence we opted to push the forecast highs 1-2F over
the consensus of MOS and HPC.

Despite the warm pattern, we will probably FALL short of record
territory. Record highs in Tallahassee in the December 1-4 RANGE
are in the lower 80s, and in fact all of the records from December
2nd to 4th were SET in 1982. That YEAR featured a highly amplified
flow pattern with average 1000-500mb thicknesses, 500mb heights,
and 850mb temperatures all higher than in the present case.


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