Long Term Update

LONG TERM [Thursday through Monday]...
The extended forecast will feature a predominately zonal flow
across the continental US. The 500mb HEIGHT trend over the time
frame in question is approximately +50m, and the subtly building
ridge will favor warming temperatures. However, the low-level
ANTICYCLONE over the Southeast is likely to anchor a cooler AIR
mass in place a bit longer, so the warming trend should be
gradual. By Monday, the GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN 2m TEMPERATURE
departures over most of the CONUS are above normal, including all
of the ensemble members over our area. With normal highs Monday
(Dec 3rd) in Tallahassee around 68 - this likely spells a stretch
of days with highs in the 70s at the end of the extended range
forecast. Despite some sporadic light QPF from a FEW of the global
models, there is little continuity on timing or spatial extent
(plus an overall lack of forcing). Therefore, PoPs were capped at
a silent 14% to produce a dry forecast


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