Long Term Update

LONG TERM [Wednesday through Sunday]...
The extended long wave pattern projects to be a QUIET one. It
commences with ridging across the West half of CONUS shunting a
de-amplifying trough EWD with axis along ERN seaboard and into
Atlc. At surface, LOW moved NEWD to off MID-Atlc coast with
trailing cold FRONT, responsible for RAIN on Tues, now well south
of local region. In its WAKE, high pressure over NRN Plains and
WRN Gulf will build E/SE allowing cooler and drier AIR to
overspread the region yielding clear skies. However, neither of
the global models show a major cool down behind this front.

During the rest of the period, the trough will continue to lift
NEWD, to be increasingly replaced by UPSTREAM ridging and NWLY
steering flow. On Thurs, a SHORTWAVE trough develops in SRN
Plains/TX and begins to amplify Ewd flattening SRN RIDGE yielding
local zonal flow before weak ridging takes over on weekend. At
surface, high pressure dominates local area as CENTER moves from
MS Valley Wed THRU OH Valley to offshore NRN Mid-ATLC Thurs into
early Fri with ridge extending SWWD to across local area increasing
local GRADIENT and ELY flow into weekend mainly ERN counties. Ridge
weakens over the weekend and a Gulf low lifts newd and approaches
the local area yielding weak return flow, moderating temps and
reintroducing a small chance of rain. GFS showing convective
feedback DEEPENING shortwave as it crosses Gulf states over weekend.
This seems like the outlier and this far out will not bite. So
until I see better agreement, this far out will go with WDLY SCT

Will go with NIL POPs except wdly sct POPs SAT into Sun. Min temps
commence around 5 degrees above CLIMO Tues night with lingering
clouds from exiting front, dropping to below climo Wed night before
rising to slightly above climo Sat night. Max temps at or slightly
above climo thru the period. AVG inland Min/Max is 44/68 degrees.

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