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Long Term Update

LONG TERM [Sunday through Thursday]...

Both the GFS and ECMWF forecast a continued progressive pattern in
the large scale 500 MB HEIGHT fields. After a chilly Sunday (with
the potential for our first widespread light freeze),temperatures
will gradually return to CLIMATOLOGY by Monday afternoon and Tuesday
ahead of the next cold front approaching from the northwest. There
was much better agreement among the two global models with this
front compared to 24 hours ago, as they now have the cold front
passing through our forecast area late Tuesday or early Wednesday.
This will be followed by a return to dry conditions with near-CLIMO
temperatures. This next front appears vigorous enough to support a
good CHANCE of some much-needed RAIN for our region, and possibly
even some thunderstorms.


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