Long Term Update

LONG TERM [Sunday through Thursday]...
The large scale longwave pattern that commences the period is
highlighted by TROUGH with axis just off West Coast, ridging over
the SRN Plains EWD THRU E/CNTRL gulf, then split FLOW over ERN most
CONUS with ridging over NRN states, and shortwaves DEEPENING trough
over SRN states and NE Gulf with CUTOFF low invcnty of local area
and dry NW/W flow overspreading local area. At surface, strong high
over Que with RIDGE axis SWWD across entire Gulf region.

During the rest of the period, as initial upper srn stream shortwave
exits EWD shunting trough offshore Sun into Sun night, weak upper
ridging or quasi-zonal flow takes hold as a drier airmass will
continue to overspread the region from NW-SE. At surface, ridge
holds while a low develops under upper trough off SE Coast by Sun.
This combination providing N/NE low level local flow with tightening
GRADIENT (so FOG unlikely but low stratus possible) and further
dries our local area. EURO and GFS continue to diverge by Sun night.
Both show drying trend TIL at least Tues but former more aggressive,
farther south and stronger with cutoff low and thus slower in moving
trough off ERN seaboard and in pulling surface low NEWD. Conversely,
GFS which reabsorbs low into open wave, begins and ends local
moisture earlier. So, overall confidence in forecast not high and
will blend.

Models show next trough exiting Rockies on Mon, MS Valley on Tues
and into SE region on Wed. Assocd weak upper level shortwave moving
EWD ahead of trough shifts zonal flow to weak cyclonic late Tues
into Wed,and helps erode local surface ridge with an increase in
clouds. This time GFS more bullish with another trough and surface
REFLECTION invcnty local region yielding next chance of rain over NE
Gulf while EURO rather dry. Again until I see some consistency will
favor blend and show modest uptick in precipitation.

Forecast continues to be mostly dry one and will go with NIL POPS
thru Tues, then WDLY SCT Tues night and sct on Wed. MIN temps will
hover around CLIMO SAT thru Mon nights before rising to slightly
above climo Tues and Wed nights. Max temps to run several degrees
below NORMAL to commence the period, then around climo for rest of
period. AVG inland min/max is 45/70 degrees.


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