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Long Term Update

LONG TERM [Thursday Night through next Tuesday]...
The latest extended forecast has not changed appreciably from the
previous update about 24hr ago. A blocking RIDGE near the Bering
Strait and an amplifying TROUGH just DOWNSTREAM along the Pacific
Coast should affect the flow pattern over North America. The end
result should be a period dominated by an expanding broad ridge to
the east of the Rockies (500mb height anomalies 10-25m above normal
in the northern tier of states and into eastern Canada). The ridge
should begin to expand initially as a shortwave trough digs SE into
the eastern CONUS, and this could lead to the digging mid-upper
level trough becoming increasingly CUTOFF from the northern branch
of the JET stream. The general agreement among model solutions now
(and even the majority of GFS and ECMWF ENSEMBLE members) is for
slightly below average 500mb heights through much of the extended,
albeit with very little QPF. Therefore, the forecast continues to be
a mostly dry one, with temperatures running just below normals for
mid-November (72/47 at Tallahassee for November 18th). Confidence on
any specific solution is lower than normal given continued model
spread on a variety of forecast parameters.


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