Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 27
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1000 Pm Cdt Tue Aug 07 2012

Summary Of 1000 Pm Cdt...0300 Utc...Information
-----------------------------------------------
Location...18.7n 87.7w
About 40 Mi...65 Km Ene Of Chetumal Mexico
About 200 Mi...325 Km Ese Of Campeche Mexico
Maximum Sustained Winds...85 Mph...140 Km/H
Present Movement...W Or 270 Degrees At 15 Mph...24 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...980 Mb...28.94 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
Changes With This Advisory...

The Government Of Mexico Has Issued A Hurricane Watch For Mainland Mexico From Barra De Nautla Southward To Punta El Lagarto. A Tropical Storm Watch Has Also Been Issued From North Of Barra De Nautla Northward To Tuxpan Mexico.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Hurricane Warning Is In Effect For...
* Chetumal To Tulum On The East Coast Of The Yucatan Peninsula
* Cozumel
* Coast Of Belize From Belize City Northward To The Border Of Mexico

A Hurricane Watch Is In Effect For...
* Barra De Nautla To Punta El Lagarto Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* North Of Tulum To Cabo Catoche On The East Coast Of The Yucatan
Peninsula
* South Of Belize City Southward To The Border Of Guatemala
* Celestun Southward And Westward To Chilitepec Along The Gulf Coast Of Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch Is In Effect For...
* North Of Barra De Nautla To Tuxpan Mexico

A Hurricane Watch Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Possible
Within The Watch Area. A Watch Is Typically Issued 48 Hours
Before The Anticipated First Occurrence Of Tropical-Storm-Force
Winds...Conditions That Make Outside Preparations Difficult Or
Dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are
Possible Within The Watch Area...Generally Within 48 Hours.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 1000 Pm Cdt...0300 Utc...The Center Of Hurricane Ernesto Was
Located By The Belize Doppler Radar To Be Near Latitude 18.7
North...Longitude 87.7 West..Or Over Northeren Banco Chinchorro
Islands Mexico.

Ernesto Is Moving Toward The West Near 15 Mph...24 Km/H...This General Motion Is Expected To Continue Through Tonight...Followed By A Motion Toward Toward The West Or West-Northwest On Wednesday.

On The Forecast Track...The Eye Of Hurricane Ernesto Will Cross The East Coast Of The Yucatan Peninsula Within The Next Few Hours. The Center Of Ernesto Is Forecast To Move Across The Yucatan Peninsula Late Tonight And Early Wednesday...And Emerge Over The Bay Of Campeche By Wednesday Afternoon Or Evening.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 85 Mph...140 Km/H...With Higher
Gusts.

Ernesto Is A Category One Hurricane On The Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Some Slight Strengthening Is Possible Before Ernesto Reaches
The Yucatan Peninsula Later Tonight.

Weakening Is Expected As Ernesto Moves Over Land.

Hurricane-Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 35 Miles...55 Km...From The Center...And Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 175 Miles...280 Km.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 980 Mb...28.94 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
Wind...
Hurricane Conditions Are Expected To Reach The East Coast Of The Yucatan Peninsula In The Warning Area Tonight. Tropical Storm
Conditions Are Expected Along Portions Of The Gulf Coast Of Mexico
In The Tropical Storm Warning Area By Wednesday Afternoon.

Rainfall...
Ernesto Is Expected To Produce Total Rainfall Accumulations Of 3 To 5 Inches Along The Northern Coast Of Honduras...With Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 8 Inches Over Mountainous Terrain.

Total Rainfall Accumulations Of 4 To 8 Inches With Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 12 Inches Are Possible Over Belize...The Yucatan Peninsula And Northern Guatemala.

These Rains May Produce Life Threatening Flash Floods And Mud Slides Over Higher Terrain.

Storm Surge...
A Dangerous Storm Surge Will Raise Water Levels By As Much As 2 To 4 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels Along The Immediate Coast Near And To The North Of Where The Center Makes Landfall On The East Coast Of The Yucatan Peninsula.

A Storm Surge Of 1 To 3 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels Is Likely In Areas Of Onshore Winds In The Warning Area Along The Gulf Coast Of Mexico.

Near The Coast...The Surge Will Be Accompanied By Large And Dangerous Waves.

Earlier Reports From Ham Radio Operators Indicate Storm Surge
Flooding Of More Than 2 Feet Has Occurred On Ambergris Caye Island Belize.

Next Advisory
-------------
Next Intermediate Advisory...100 Am Cdt.
Next Complete Advisory...400 Am Cdt.

Forecaster Stewart

______________________________________________________

Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 27
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1000 Pm Cdt Tue Aug 07 2012

Technical Issues Prevented A Recon Flight From Investigating Ernesto This Evening.

However...Imagery From The Belize Radar Indicate The Hurricane Had A Well-Defined 15-Nmi Diameter Eye Earlier This Evening...But The Eye Has Become A Little Ragged Over The Past Couple Of Hours.

The Initial Intensity Has Been Increased To 75 Kt Based On An Intensity Estimate Of 77 Kt From Both Tafb And Sab.

Radar Fixes Over The Past 6 Hours Indicate Ernesto Has Been Moving Westward...Or 270/13 Kt.

The Eye Of The Hurricane Is Currently Located Over The Northern Banco Chinchorro Islands Of Mexico...And Will Moving Onshore The Southern Coast Of Yucatan Shortly.

The Nhc Model Guidance Remains In Very Good Agreement On Ernesto Moving Westward To West-Northwestward Across Southern Yucatan Tonight And Wednesday...And Emerging Over The Bay Of Campeche By Wednesday Afternoon Or Evening.

Low- To Mid-Level Ridging To The North And Northwest Of The Cyclone As It Moves Over The Bay Of Campeche Is Expected To Turn Ernesto Toward The West-Southwest By 48 Hours As It Nears Mainland Mexico.

After The Second Landfall Occurs... Ernesto Is Expected To Rapidly Weaken Into A Remnant Low Over The High Mountains Of Interior Mexico By 96 Hours.

The Official Forecast Track Is Similar To But Slightly South Of The Previous Forecast Track...And Lies Close To The Consensus Models.

Little If Any Additional Strengthening Is Expected Before Landfall
Occurs.

Ernesto Should Weaken Rapidly As It Passes Over Yucatan Tonight And Tomorrow...But The Increase In Low-Level Frictional Convergence May Actually Help To Tighten Up The Circulation Before
It Emerges Over The Bay Of Campeche In 18-24 Hours.

This Appears To Be One Of The Driving Mechanisms In The Hwrf And Gfdl Models... Which Make Ernesto A Hurricane Again By 48 Hours When It Is Over The Southern Bay Of Campeche.

This Seems Reasonable Given The Current And Expected Favorable Anticyclonic Outflow Over Ernesto.

Rapid Weakening And Dissipation Should Occur After The Second
Landfall In Mainland Mexico Due To Very High Terrain.

The Official Intensity Forecast Is Similar To The Previous Advisory... And Follows A Blend Of The Lgem...Gfdl...And Hwrf Models.

34-Kt Wind Radii Were Expanded In The Eastern Semicircle Based On Wind Reports From The Last Recon Flight And Noaa Buoy 42056.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 08/0300z 18.7n 87.7w 75 Kt 85 Mph...Over Banco Chinchorro
12h 08/1200z 19.1n 89.5w 40 Kt 45 Mph...Inland Yucatan
24h 09/0000z 19.4n 91.9w 45 Kt 50 Mph...Over Water
36h 09/1200z 19.4n 94.0w 55 Kt 65 Mph
48h 10/0000z 19.2n 95.8w 65 Kt 75 Mph
72h 11/0000z 18.7n 98.5w 25 Kt 30 Mph...Dissipating Inland
96h 12/0000z...Dissipated

Forecaster Stewart