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Humberto Weakens to a Tropcal Storm in Open Atlantic

Tropical Storm Humberto Advisory Number 20
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1100 Am Ast Fri Sep 13 2013

Humberto Weakens To A Tropical Storm...

Summary Of 1100 Am Ast...1500 Utc...Information
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Location...24.7n 31.3w
About 765 Mi...1230 Km Nw Of The Cape Verde Islands
Maximum Sustained Winds...65 Mph...100 Km/H
Present Movement...Wnw Or 300 Degrees At 10 Mph...17 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...991 Mb...29.26 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
There Are No Coastal Watches Or Warnings In Effect.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 1100 Am Ast...1500 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Storm Humberto
Was Located Near Latitude 24.7 North...Longitude 31.3 West.

Humberto Is Moving Toward The West-Northwest Near 10 Mph...17 Km/H...And This General Motion Is Expected For The Next Couple Of Days.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 65 Mph...100 Km/H...With Higher
Gusts. Additional Weakening Is Forecast During The Next 48 Hours.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 205 Miles...335 Km From The Center.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 991 Mb...29.26 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
None.
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Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number 20
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1100 Am Ast Fri Sep 13 2013

Vertical Shear Is Taking Its Toll On Humberto. All Of The Deep
Convection Has Been Sheared Away From The Circulation...Leaving An Exposed Center With Some Impressive Mesovortices. The Initial Wind Speed Is Lowered To 55 Kt...Basically As Fast As The Dvorak
Constraints Allow.

Further Weakening Seems Probable For The Next Day Or So Due To Increasing Southwesterly Shear And Marginal Ssts.

In A Couple Of Days...The Vertical Wind Shear Should Begin To
Diminish While Humberto Moves Over Warmer Waters...Which Could
Allow For Some Restrengthening.

Global Models Suggest That The Storm Will Undergo A Trough Interaction In The Long Range...Leaving It In A Favorable Environment To Become Even Stronger. The Official Intensity Forecast Is Lowered From The Previous One During The First 36 Hours Based On Current Trends And The Rather Strong Shear Forecast. At The End Of The Period...The Nhc Forecast Is A Little Higher...But Is Still Below The Model Consensus.

The Initial Motion Is 300/9. A West-Northwest Track Of Humberto Is
Expected For The Next Couple Of Days Due To A Strong Ridge Over The Northeastern Atlantic. The Storm Should Turn Northward By Days 4-5 While It Recurves Around The Western Side Of The Ridge.

The Only Significant Difference In The Model Guidance Is How Fast The Storm Accelerates Into The Far North Atlantic Ocean...Which Depends On What Particular Shortwave Amplifies The Next Mid-Latitude Trough. The New Nhc Prediction Will Stay Close To The Previous One...Near The Florida State Superensemble And A Bit Faster Than The Dynamical Model Consensus.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 13/1500z 24.7n 31.3w 55 Kt 65 Mph
12h 14/0000z 25.4n 32.7w 45 Kt 50 Mph
24h 14/1200z 26.3n 35.0w 40 Kt 45 Mph
36h 15/0000z 27.4n 37.3w 40 Kt 45 Mph
48h 15/1200z 28.5n 39.4w 40 Kt 45 Mph
72h 16/1200z 30.7n 42.5w 45 Kt 50 Mph
96h 17/1200z 32.8n 45.0w 55 Kt 65 Mph
120h 18/1200z 36.5n 44.5w 65 Kt 75 Mph

Forecaster Blake


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