Flood Potential Outlook from the National Weather Service

By: 4Warn Weather Team
By: 4Warn Weather Team
With more rain expected late this week and into the weekend, there is a risk for flooding in the Wiregrass.

Geneva city streets flooding . Cars stuck , houses flooded

*****UPDATE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE*****
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION HAS ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS ABOVE BASE FLOWS AND SATURATED SOILS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE IN RECESSION AT THIS TIME BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN TO BASE LEVELS BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF RAINFALL BEGINS LATE THIS WEEK.

COMPUTER MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE SPECIFIC DETAILS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION
BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. BECAUSE THESE STORM SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING AND PULL IN A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF GULF MOISTURE...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD EVENT OF COMPARABLE MAGNITUDE OR GREATER THAN LAST WEEK IS
POSSIBLE INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE FIRST RAINFALL EVENT ON FRIDAY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND INTO
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA SHOULD THIS SYSTEM MOVE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED.

THE SECOND RAINFALL EVENT IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN ON MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE MORE UNCERTAIN BUT COULD EASILY MEET OR EXCEED PREVIOUS RAINFALL FROM THE FIRST EVENT.

AVERAGE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY...

SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.........5 TO 8 INCHES
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.........5 TO 8 INCHES
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA......3 TO 5 INCHES
SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.....3 TO 4 INCHES
FLORIDA BIG BEND..........2 TO 4 INCHES

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT LOCALLY HEAVIER STORM TOTALS DOUBLE THESE AVERAGE AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS IN MANY LOCATIONS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE COULD CREATE ANOTHER ROUND OF DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.

IMPACTS ON RIVERS...

SHOULD THESE ANTICIPATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OCCUR...SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WOULD BE LIKELY. CURRENTLY...THE FOLLOWING BASINS ARE WELL ABOVE BASE FLOWS AND VULNERABLE TO FLOODING...

CHOCTAWHATCHEE...INCREASED FLOODING POTENTIAL BETWEEN GENEVA AND BRUCE INTO NEXT WEEK.

CHIPOLA...INCREASED FLOODING POTENTIAL AT MARIANNA AND ALTHA INTO NEXT WEEK.

APALACHICOLA...MINOR FLOODING POTENTIAL AT BLOUNTSTOWN CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.

FLINT...MINOR FLOODING POTENTIAL AT ALBANY AND AN INCREASED FLOOD POTENTIAL FROM NEWTON TO LAKE SEMINOLE.

WITHLACHOOCHEE...MINOR FLOODING POTENTIAL AT VALDOSTA.

OTHER VULNERABLE STREAMS INCLUDE THE MUCKALEE CREEK AND KINCHAFOONEE NORTH OF ALBANY AS WELL AS THE SPRING CREEK IN MILLER COUNTY AND THE LITTLE RIVER NEAR HAHIRA.

AS WITH ANY HYDROLOGIC RIVER PREDICTION...RISES AND EVENTUAL CRESTS ARE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS AND ENTERS THE BASIN. FOR THIS REASON...THIS OUTLOOK MAY BE UPDATED FREQUENTLY IN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR THE LATEST FLOOD AND RIVER INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO WEATHER.GOV/TALLAHASSEE AND CLICK ON THE RIVERS AND LAKES LINK.

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POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...

RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION HAS ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS ABOVE BASE FLOWS AND SATURATED SOILS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE IN RECESSION AT THIS TIME BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN TO BASE LEVELS BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF RAINFALL BEGINS LATE THIS WEEK.

COMPUTER MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE SPECIFIC DETAILS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION
BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. BECAUSE THESE STORM SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING AND PULL IN A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF GULF MOISTURE...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD EVENT OF COMPARABLE MAGNITUDE OR GREATER THAN LAST WEEK IS
POSSIBLE INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE FIRST RAINFALL EVENT ON FRIDAY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND INTO
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA SHOULD THIS SYSTEM MOVE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED.

THE SECOND RAINFALL EVENT IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN ON MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE MORE UNCERTAIN BUT COULD EASILY MEET OR EXCEED PREVIOUS RAINFALL FROM THE FIRST EVENT.

AVERAGE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY...

SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.........4 TO 7 INCHES
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.........4 TO 7 INCHES
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA......3 TO 5 INCHES
SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.....3 TO 4 INCHES
FLORIDA BIG BEND..........2 TO 4 INCHES

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT LOCALLY HEAVIER STORM TOTALS DOUBLE THESE AVERAGE AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS IN MANY LOCATIONS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE COULD CREATE ANOTHER ROUND OF DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.

IMPACTS ON RIVERS...

SHOULD THESE ANTICIPATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OCCUR...SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WOULD BE LIKELY. CURRENTLY...THE FOLLOWING BASINS ARE WELL ABOVE BASE FLOWS AND VULNERABLE TO FLOODING...

CHOCTAWHATCHEE...INCREASED FLOODING POTENTIAL BETWEEN GENEVA AND BRUCE INTO NEXT WEEK.

CHIPOLA...INCREASED FLOODING POTENTIAL AT MARIANNA AND ALTHA INTO NEXT WEEK.

APALACHICOLA...MINOR FLOODING POTENTIAL AT BLOUNTSTOWN CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.

FLINT...MINOR FLOODING POTENTIAL AT ALBANY AND AN INCREASED FLOOD POTENTIAL FROM NEWTON TO LAKE SEMINOLE.

WITHLACHOOCHEE...MINOR FLOODING POTENTIAL AT VALDOSTA.

OTHER VULNERABLE STREAMS INCLUDE THE MUCKALEE CREEK AND KINCHAFOONEE NORTH OF ALBANY AS WELL AS THE SPRING CREEK IN MILLER COUNTY AND THE LITTLE RIVER NEAR HAHIRA.

AS WITH ANY HYDROLOGIC RIVER PREDICTION...RISES AND EVENTUAL CRESTS ARE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS AND ENTERS THE BASIN. FOR THIS REASON...THIS OUTLOOK MAY BE UPDATED FREQUENTLY IN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR THE LATEST FLOOD AND RIVER INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO WEATHER.GOV/TALLAHASSEE AND CLICK ON THE RIVERS AND LAKES LINK.


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