Erin Weakens to a Tropical Depression in Mid Atlantic

Tropical Depression Erin Advisory Number 13
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1100 Pm Ast Sat Aug 17 2013

...Erin Weakens To A Depression Again...

Summary Of 1100 Pm Ast...0300 Utc...Information
-----------------------------------------------
Location...20.7n 37.7w
About 955 Mi...1535 Km Wnw Of The Cape Verde Islands
Maximum Sustained Winds...35 Mph...55 Km/H
Present Movement...Wnw Or 290 Degrees At 12 Mph...19 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...1008 Mb...29.77 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
There Are No Coastal Watches Or Warnings In Effect.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 1100 Pm Ast...0300 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Depression Erin
Was Located Near Latitude 20.7 North...Longitude 37.7 West.

The Depression Is Moving Toward The West-Northwest Near 12 Mph...19 Km/H. This General Motion Is Expected For The Next Couple Of Days.

Maximum Sustained Winds Have Decreased To Near 35 Mph...55
Km/H...With Higher Gusts.

Little Change In Strength Is Forecast On Sunday...And Erin Could Become A Remnant Low On Monday.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1008 Mb...29.77 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land

None.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tropical Depression Erin Discussion Number 13
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1100 Pm Ast Sat Aug 17 2013

The Low-Level Structure Of Erin Has Recently Degraded With The
Circulation Becoming Elongated From Northwest To Southeast.

In Addition...The Associated Deep Convection Is Farther Away From The Center. An Ascat Pass From 2310 Utc Suggested Maximum Winds Of 30-35 Kt...And Given The Decreasing Dvorak Estimates And The Recent Satellite Trends...30 Kt Is Chosen As The Intital Intensity.

Southwesterly Shear...Dry Air...And Marginal Sea Surface Temperatures Should Cause Erin To Become A Remnant Low Within
48 Hours.

The Latest Nhc Intensity Forecast Follows The Trend Of The Previous Advisory And Is Similar To The Global Model Guidance...Which Show Erin Degenerating Into A Trough Of Low Pressure By 72 Hours.

Ascat Data Suggest The Center Of Erin Has Moved Westward During The Past Few Hours But A Longer-Term Motion Is 290/10.

A Subtropical Ridge Rebuilding Over The Central Atlantic Appears To Have Caused The Leftward Turn And Should Steer Erin On This General Course For The Next Couple Of Days.

Model Guidance Has Shifted Notably Southward On This Cycle...With A Few Models Even Showing A Due Westward Track. Assuming A Weaker Erin Would Become More Steered By A Stronger Low-Level Ridge...The Nhc Forecast Is Adjusted To The South.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 18/0300z 20.7n 37.7w 30 Kt 35 Mph
12h 18/1200z 21.3n 39.2w 30 Kt 35 Mph
24h 19/0000z 21.9n 41.3w 30 Kt 35 Mph
36h 19/1200z 22.5n 43.6w 25 Kt 30 Mph
48h 20/0000z 23.0n 46.0w 25 Kt 30 Mph...Post-Trop/Remnt Low
72h 21/0000z...Dissipated

Forecaster Blake


WTVY-TV 285 N Foster Street Dothan, AL 36303 334-792-3195
Copyright © 2002-2014 - Designed by Gray Digital Media - Powered by Clickability 220074581 - wtvy.com/a?a=220074581
Gray Television, Inc.