(Tuesday Night Through Next Sunday)...

The Large Scale Longwave Pattern Commences With Broad Troughing Over Wrn States, Amplified Ridge Over Ern States With Ridge From Canadian Maritimes Swwd To Wrn Gulf And A Positively Tilted Trough Over Extreme Wrn Atlc.

At Surface, High Over Mid-Atlc With Ridge Axis Wsw To Over Gulf Region Yielding Ely Flow. This Will Result Subsidence And Suppressed Convective Activity Across The Local Area For At Least
The Initial Days Of The Forecast.

By Wednesday Evening, Above Strong Trough Begins To Move Ese
Impinging On Ern Ridge That Begins To Break Down. Deep Layer Moisture Will Gradually Increase As The Ridge Slides Into Atlc And Low-Level Flow Veers To Se Into Fri Allowing Small Chance Of Rain.

At This Point, Forecast Remains Uncertain Even Though Gfs And Ecmwf In Better Agreement Than Previous Run With Possible Development Of Surface Low Into A Tropical System Likely In The Bay Of Campeche.

Initially This Will Allow Ridge Over Ern Fl/Wrn Atlc To Rebuild With
Temps Inching Up.

Then The Guidance Shows Tropical Moisture Increasing Significantly From The Sw By Early Sun.

Latter Forecast Period Likely To Be Amended As We Begin To Get A Better Handle Of This Tropical Scenario.

So For Now, Temps/Pops Will Show A Compromise Of Both Solutions. Temps Will Near Normal Then Increase Under Ridging, With Noted S-N Gradient. Temperatures Across The Fl Coast And Se Big Bend More Uncertain Due To Increased Cloud Cover And Potential Convective Activity. (Avg Inland Min/Max Are 69/91 Degrees)

Pops Will Remain Nil Until At Least Fri Aftn Then Gradually Increase, Again Mainly Coastal Area And Waters.