NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Appears latest forecast remains on track with scattered moist
convection developing near primary surface front stalled across
nrn FL and sea-breeze circulations around the Big Bend. This
activity is expected to linger into the evening, but should quickly diminish after sunset.
Overnight, expect drier air filtering in behind the front should bring cooler readings into the far northern counties where a few locales could dip into the mid 60s, with lows around 70 for the most part elsewhere.
A few areas of patchy fog can also be expected around sunrise.
SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
Upper level ridging is expected to build over the area through the
short term with low-level flow out of the east or southeast and
surface high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic.
This east to southeast flow is expected to keep just enough moisture around for isolated to scattered afternoon convection.
Afternoon highs mainly in the lower 90s are anticipated with overnight lows mostly in the lower 70s.
LONG TERM [Tuesday through Saturday]...
An upper level ridge is expected to dominate during the first half
of the period with surface ridging northeast of the area.
This should provide easterly surface flow with fairly low PoPs in the
20-30% range through most of the week.
By late in the period, the ridging may start to break down with a slight increase in moisture leading to 30-40% PoPs.
Near seasonal temperatures are expected.
VFR will be the norm across the region through the forecast period, except near any shower or thunderstorm this afternoon into the early evening near KTLH or KVLD.
Patchy fog a few hours either side of sunrise is also possible, and have brought brief MVFR visibilities for a few sites Sunday morning. Any restrictions will burn away quickly by mid morning.
High pressure will build north of the waters into early next week with gradually increasing easterly flow.
Although winds and seas should remain below advisory criteria through mid-week, seas offshore could reach 4 to 5 feet by late Tuesday or Wednesday, and long period swells from Ingrid may reach the coastal waters as well in the next few days.
Some slightly drier air has arrived in parts of southeast Alabama
and southwest Georgia, but relative humidity levels are still above critical thresholds.
No red flag conditions are currently expected.
Downward water level trends will continue for the next several days as neither significant nor widespread rainfall is anticipated.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 71 93 72 92 72 / 20 20 20 30 20
Panama City 73 90 75 90 75 / 10 20 20 20 20
Dothan 67 91 71 91 70 / 10 20 20 20 10
Albany 68 91 72 91 71 / 10 20 20 20 10
Valdosta 70 92 70 91 70 / 20 30 20 30 20
Cross City 70 92 71 92 70 / 20 30 20 30 20
Apalachicola 75 89 75 88 75 / 10 20 10 20 20
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