NEAR TERM [Tonight]...
We may see a few showers/thunderstorms gradually spread from
southwest to northeast into our western zones overnight.
Otherwise, we included areas of dense fog in the grids across most of our GA zones and eastern Big bend for persistence.
SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
Karen is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression as it reaches the mouth of the Mississippi River Sunday before turning almost due east passing through our coastal waters Sunday night and Monday.
This may mean that our advertised PoPs for this time period may be too high as most of the convection is currently east and southeast of the circulation center. This will be addressed in the next forecast package.
Either way, we do expect convection along and ahead of a cold front that will approach late Sunday and sweep through from west to east on Monday.
Rain will gradually end Monday night with cooler and drier air filtering in the wake of the cold front.
Temps will be above seasonal levels through Monday and then cooler than normal Monday night. Min temps by daybreak Tuesday are expected to drop into the lower 50s northwest to upper 50s southeast away from the coast.
LONG TERM [Tuesday through Saturday]...
In the wake of TD Karen, and the accompanying cold front that will be causing recurvature, there is generally good model agreement on an expansive low-level ridge of high pressure over much of the eastern United States through much of the extended forecast.
Therefore, these periods have a dry forecast.
With northeast boundary layer flow on the south side of the ridge, and slightly cooler low-level temperatures (850mb ~ +12 to +14C), the
temperatures should be near or slightly below normal for much of the
AVIATION [Through 06 UTC Friday]...
VFR conditions will persist for the afternoon and evening hours.
We are fairly confident that we will see another round of fog with
VLIFR conditions at VLD late tonight into Sunday morning, with IFR
at ABY and MVFR at DHN and TLH.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with Karen or her remnants will impact ECP late in the period with isolated convection possible at DHN and TLH prior to 18 UTC.
The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued.
The strongest winds that we have explicitly forecast in our coastal waters are around 20 knots on Sunday.
Drier air will arrive behind a cold front for Monday.
RH will dip below 35 percent across our western zones, not low enough to challenge red flag criteria.
With the substantial weakening of Karen, and marked decrease in
convection in association overnight, Storm Total QPF has been
trimmed back significantly across the board, with generally between
1 and 2.5 inches of rain now expected with locally higher amounts
still possible through Monday.
While the potential for locally heavy rainfall will still need to be monitored as Karen interacts with an approaching upper level trof and Sfc cold front from the west, significant riverine flooding is not expected at this time.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 70 87 73 87 58 / 20 70 80 50 10
PANAMA CITY 74 85 71 86 61 / 30 80 80 30 10
DOTHAN 68 84 67 84 53 / 20 80 90 30 10
ALBANY 66 86 70 84 55 / 10 70 90 50 10
VALDOSTA 66 87 69 86 58 / 10 50 70 70 10
CROSS CITY 67 89 72 86 59 / 10 50 60 70 20
APALACHICOLA 73 84 72 86 64 / 30 70 80 40 10