NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
The cold front continues to move through the area and should finish
crossing the area later tonight. A drying trend with decreasing clouds will commence from west to east tonight. Overnight lows will be well below normal across most of the area with temperatures reaching the mid 40s across the western half of the area away from the coast. Far eastern areas and the southeast big bend are expected to see low to mid 50s.
SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday]...
The anomalous upper level low will steadily spin through the heart
of the Southeast through the period. The low will provide plenty
of forcing for showers both Sunday and Monday as impulses
translate around the base of the low. The main limiting factor
will be the dry air in the lower levels which will likely keep any
rainfall rather light. Regardless, the wet pattern will continue
until the upper low spirals out of the region sometime on Monday
Aside from the continuing shower activity, temperatures will run 10, to even 15 degrees below average for some locations. Advancing clouds and rain will keep temperatures in check tomorrow, with a lower 70s to upper 70s northwest to southeast gradient in place. Overnight, lows will dip into the upper 40s in the wake of the showers. Monday will be the coldest afternoon as we are forecast to mix into the upper cold pool. Expect temperatures to remain around 70 degrees throughout Florida, and in the middle 60s across Georgia and Alabama, where clouds and rain will linger much of the day. With rain lingering into the night, overnight lows won`t be quite as cool, with around 50 degrees expected to the northwest, and up to 60 degrees across the southeast Big Bend of Florida.
LONG TERM [Monday Night through Friday]...
In the wake of the upper low, we will dry out an warm up quite a bit. No major weather systems are forecast to impact the local area, and temperatures will warm to seasonal averages by mid week.
AVIATION [Beginning 18Z Saturday]...
A cold front will continue affecting the area through the remainder of the afternoon. Periods of showers and MVFR/IFR cigs are expected. Gradual clearing is expected across the western TAF sites of KDHN and KECP by this evening.
Ongoing advisory conditions will continue through at least Monday
morning as the disturbed pattern is forecast to bring a few fronts across our Gulf of Mexico waters.
Cautionary conditions will then take over until Tuesday, when higher pressure and weaker gradients spread over the northern Gulf.
Drier air will move into the area for Sunday and Monday, but red flag conditions are not expected. However, mixing heights, transport winds, and dispersions are expected to be high on both days.
With only light rain anticipated through mid week, do not expect any meaningful river or creek rises for the foreseeable future.
All area rivers will remain below action stage, except the
Apalachicola River at Blountstown which will bounce in and out of
action stage over the next several days.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 68 47 77 48 71 / 60 40 30 10 20
Panama City 62 53 72 53 68 /100 0 30 10 20
Dothan 58 44 71 46 68 /100 0 30 20 40
Albany 64 47 74 47 68 / 90 70 30 20 40
Valdosta 68 50 76 48 70 / 70 70 20 10 30
Cross City 75 53 78 50 71 / 30 20 10 10 20
Apalachicola 70 50 73 52 68 /100 0 30 10 20
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for Gulf of Mexico waters from Destin to the Suwannee River, out to 60 NM.