NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
An upper level trough currently resides over the central and eastern U.S., and is forecast to become more amplified tonight as it digs into the South tonight and tomorrow. This feature is very rare for the early summer months, as the upper level flow is typically much less amplified and weaker in our region around this time. In addition, a broad area of low pressure at the surface will continue to develop in our area and the rest of the South through the period. Combined with the moist conditions currently in place, these features will cause chances for precipitation to increase over parts of our area tonight and into tomorrow.
The area of showers and thunderstorms that affected our north
Florida counties earlier today has pushed well offshore, leaving
behind a broken layer of high clouds over much of the CWA that
has kept temperatures below normal and suppressed the development of convection so far today. As the clouds continue to dissipate, however, scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop over our region throughout the rest of the afternoon as temperatures warm into the mid-upper 80s at most locations. Any storms that develop should mainly be short-lived and non-severe.
CAM models are suggesting that similar to last night, scattered
showers and thunderstorms should increase in coverage through the
evening and overnight hours, especially in our coastal regions and
marine zones. Conditions tonight should remain warm and humid,
with lows in the low-mid 70s inland and upper 70s in coastal
SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
Upper trough will continue to deepen through Sunday with the axis
extending from southern Indiana to the central Gulf Coast. At the surface, a weak surface low is forecast to develop over southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.
The combination of these two features (along with shortwave energy moving through the base of the trough) will provide plenty of forcing for showers and thunderstorms over the next two days. A shortwave rounding the base of the trough tonight will likely kick off numerous to
widespread showers and thunderstorms across the eastern half of
the forecast area early on Sunday. Highest PoPs will likely be
along and east of the river for Sunday morning. Sunday morning
activity may diminish the instability available later in the day,
so will carry slightly lower PoPs into the afternoon. A similar
evolution is expected on Monday with additional early morning
convection over the eastern half. The distribution of precip will
likely impact the high temperatures as well, with warmer
temperatures expected over the western zones, where more sun is
LONG TERM [Tuesday through Saturday]...
Upper trough will be in place over the Mississippi Valley through
much of the extended period. This will continue the relatively
moist and unsettled weather over the forecast area.
Guidance is in fairly good agreement that an enhanced feed of tropical moisture will slide across the region on Wednesday and Thursday, which should yield the rainiest days for the upcoming week.
However, even outside of these days, rain chances will remain somewhat elevated. Afternoon temperatures should be held to the upper 80s to around 90, possibly lower depending on the timing of the rainfall each day.
AVIATION [Through 18Z Sunday]...
Conditions should be fairly inactive for much of the region over
the first few hours of the period, with VFR conditions expected at
Currently, ABY is experiencing MVFR conditions due to low ceilings, but is expected to improve to VFR conditions later this afternoon.
A few scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon and into the evening around DHN and ECP, with chances for showers and thunderstorms increasing overnight at ECP and possibly TLH.
Some lower ceilings or patchy fog could develop during the early morning on Sunday at all terminals.
Showers and thunderstorms could increase in coverage tomorrow morning, with ECP, TLH, and VLD having the best chances at receiving precipitation before 18Z Sunday.
Weak low pressure just west of the area tonight will combine with
the strong Bermuda high over the Western Atlantic to provide
moderate southwesterly flow overnight.
Exercise caution conditions are anticipated, with winds likely remaining just below advisory levels.
The moderate flow will likely diminish by Tuesday but remain onshore through the middle of the week.
An unsettled weather pattern will persist through the weekend with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each period.
Relative humidity values will remain well above critical levels and red flag conditions are not anticipated through the upcoming week.
Recent rains of 2 to 4 inches across much of the area with isolated higher amounts have resulted in some local rises in area rivers with a couple of sites nearing action stage, primarily in the Florida Panhandle and Southeast Alabama.
Do not anticipate any sites reaching flood stage.
Localized urban flooding will be a concern later in the weekend as potentially heavier rains move into the region.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 73 89 72 88 72 / 50 70 40 60 30
Panama City 77 87 76 87 76 / 70 50 30 30 30
Dothan 73 88 71 90 71 / 40 40 20 30 20
Albany 73 87 71 89 71 / 40 60 40 40 30
Valdosta 74 86 72 86 71 / 40 70 50 70 40
Cross City 75 88 73 88 72 / 60 80 50 70 50
Apalachicola 78 86 77 85 77 / 60 70 40 60 40
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