NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Current forecast appears to be on track. There is fairly dense
coverage of showers and thunderstorms in our western CWA.
Expect most of these to diminish by 00Z except for our far eastern and
western CWA where scattered showers and storms will persist through most of the night. For the remainder of today expect scattered
showers and thunderstorms to become more widespread (generally
west of Tallahassee). High temperatures are on track to reach the
mid 80s in our western CWA and lower 90s in our eastern CWA. For
tonight expect chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms with
low temperatures reaching the lower 70s.
SHORT TERM [Sunday through Monday night]...
The flood pattern that we`ve been in for several days is expected
to break down on Sunday with a return to a more typical summertime
The upper level trough to our west will lift out and weaken, and the Bermuda ridge to our east will exert a bit more influence. We will still have moist southerly flow and daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, but the concentrated bands of heavy, flooding rains should end. With more sunshine expected than recent days, temperatures should rebound back to near seasonal levels during the day.
LONG TERM [Tuesday through Saturday]...
A fairly typical summertime pattern is expected with daily diurnal
convection through the period. By late week, an upper level low is
expected to approach from the southeast which could enhance rain
chances a little bit.
Toward the end of the week as ridging builds over the Plains, we may temporarily transition to more of a northwest flow pattern with a weak front approaching from the northwest. Near seasonal temperatures are expected.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail today outside of showers and thunderstorms occurring over the terminals. Confidence is highest that DHN and and ECP will see TSRA this afternoon.
MVFR CIGs and visibilities are expected early tomorrow morning. It is
possible IFR restrictions will occur, but at this time confidence is
low. Therefore will defer to the afternoon/evening update when more
high-resolution model guidance is available.
Shortly after sunrise tomorrow any low CIGs should dissipate leading to VFR conditions for the remaining TAF period.
A surface ridge will build west from the Atlantic through the period.
As a result, winds and seas will gradually fall over rest of the weekend and should return to more normal summertime conditions by early next week.
Red Flag conditions are not expected in the foreseeable future.
Fairly widespread rainfall is occurring across our area again today.
Although the rain rates have been very high within the strongest
rain bands, the rain bands and storms have been moving through
individual locations in an hour or less.
As a result, we haven`t seen any training echoes contributing to any flash flooding yet (through 19 UTC). That does remain possible this afternoon, but the threat for flash flooding should begin to diminish overnight and into tomorrow as slightly drier air builds in.
Most rivers across our area are either nearing their crest or have
The greatest impacts are expected to be on the Choctawhatchee River at Bruce-Ebro which will reach major flood stage.
All other rivers where flooding is expected should generally crest in minor flood stage.
We will have to keep a close eye on Sopchoppy, though, which may rise more sharply due to heavy rainfall today in the basin.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 73 91 73 92 72 / 30 50 20 40 20
Panama City 74 88 75 88 75 / 30 60 30 40 20
Dothan 72 90 73 90 72 / 40 60 40 50 20
Albany 73 91 74 92 72 / 30 60 40 40 20
Valdosta 73 91 71 92 71 / 40 30 20 30 20
Cross City 72 92 71 92 71 / 40 30 20 20 20
Apalachicola 75 86 75 88 75 / 30 50 20 30 20
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Walton-Jackson-Liberty-South Walton-Washington.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT this evening for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.