NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Morning and early afternoon convective activity has largely moved off to the far eastern portion of our forecast area with rain continuing between Valdosta and Cross City. Where breaks in the overcast have occurred further to the west, scattered showers are once again breaking out and lifting northward across the Florida Panhandle and Southeast Alabama. Expect this to continue for the next few hours until instability of the day is lost at sunset.
Model guidance is still in good agreement that after a brief lull this evening, convection should fire once again over the marine area and move toward the coast. The best chance of rain overnight appears to be across the Florida Panhandle and perhaps as far inland as Southeast Alabama.
The flood threat appears to have decreased as storms today continue to have enough forward motion to prevent any significant
SHORT TERM [Sunday through Monday]...
The weak surface trough over our forecast area today will likely be to our north by Sunday, as the subtropical deep layer ridge builds
westward across much of the Gulf of Mexico. Although there will be
little if any Q-G forcing with this ridge building to our south, the
airmass will remain plenty moist with deep layer west-southwest
winds over our area.
This is typically a favorable pattern for numerous showers and thunderstorms, provided that there are favorable thermodynamics (which there will be). The various NWP guidance is in good agreement in forecasting plenty of deep moist convection, so our forecast PoP is above climatology each day (50-60%).
Despite these high PoPs, there will not be enough large scale forcing to focus high QPF in any one area, so any flooding that occurs (if it occurs) will be localized and limited primarily to urban areas and locations get heavy rain today.
Highs will be near average- in the lower to mid 90s.
LONG TERM [Tuesday through next Saturday]...
The GFS and ECMWF continue to agree that a broad longwave trough
will be the dominant large scale weather feature over the Southeast. During this time there will likely be multiple minor short waves rotating through the base of the trough, enhancing our rain chances at times as both models forecast plenty of deep layer moisture and CAPE.
While the MOS PoP consensus is above climatology, we will forecast a fairly diurnal cycle, with the greatest PoP during the afternoon & evening hours (even though sometimes MCSs can affect our area overnight in this type of pattern).
Despite the above-climo PoPs, the MOS consensus high temperatures are in the lower to mid 90s, which is near climo.
It`s interesting to note that the 1000-700mb lapse rates are forecast to be steeper than normal (6-7 C/km) through much of this period, with the GFS being the most unstable. While the mid tropospheric winds are not expected to be very strong, the thermodynamics may be more supportive of pulse severe storms than what we have seen in recent days.
AVIATION [Through 18z Sunday]...
Scattered SHRA continue across the forecast area.
Expect primarily MVFR conditions in SHRA with an occasional IFR conditions in the heavier showers.
After sunset, much of the shower activity should dissipate with the threat for storms moving offshore.
Guidance once again indicates extensive low cloudiness likely at
ABY/DHN/VLD at IFR levels before sunrise.
Nearshore convection prior to sunrise will likely affect ECP in the predawn hours and TLH shortly after sunrise.
Light to occasionally moderate southwest winds will continue through
Monday, with seas generally in the 2 to 3 feet range.
A rainy weather pattern will persist and therefore red flag conditions are not expected for the forseeable future.
Precip Water values will remain above average through at least
However, limited large scale forcing should prevent a focus for heavy rain, which is often an ingredient for significant, widespread flooding.
Through Monday evening the global models are only forecasting 1 to 2 inches of rain, but isolated amounts will be much higher than this. We have already seen isolated pocket of rainfall amounts in the 3-6 inch range since Friday afternoon, and these types of localized amounts could continue through the remainder of today.
The probability of this occurring is low so we have cancelled the earlier Flash Flood Watch.
Riverwise, the Choctawhatchee River at Bruce was in minor flood
stage and falling.
Heavy rains last night and today have occurred in the lower portions of some of the river basins in the FL Big Bend, which will cause some sharp rises. For instance we now expect the Aucilla River at Lamont to reach flood stage.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 73 90 73 91 74 / 40 60 30 50 40
Panama City 76 88 76 88 76 / 60 50 30 50 30
Dothan 73 89 73 89 73 / 40 60 30 60 40
Albany 73 90 73 90 73 / 40 60 30 50 30
Valdosta 72 90 72 92 72 / 40 60 30 50 30
Cross City 73 88 73 90 73 / 40 60 30 40 20
Apalachicola 76 87 77 87 77 / 60 60 30 40 30
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