Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The mid level disturbance has cleared to the west and skies continue
to clear from west to east allowing for a mostly sunny and cool day
across the western half of the region. Expect cloud cover to further decrease in eastern areas this afternoon.
Since the low levels remain relatively moist, along with near calm surface winds expected tonight, and drier air in the mid levels is moving in, conditions look fairly good for the development of fog.
Fog would be most likely along the I-75 corridor in South Central Georgia and down into the Florida Big Bend. Patchy fog is possible further west in the Panhandle.
Temperatures overnight will be cool generally in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
With weak ridging over wrn and weak trough over Ern Conus...the
500 mb flow over most of the CONUS on Sun will remain fairly zonal
marked by a series of fast moving shortwaves.
This pattern will be become more amplified beginning at night when several shortwaves advance across 4 corners phasing into a positively tilted shortwave trough over the Plains into Mon.
This trough will deepen Ewd Mon night. At surface...period begins with front over extreme Srn FL...high over mid-Atlc nosing down Ern states into Gulf region and another weak cold front from low off New England Swwd down extreme Wrn Atlc then across Nrn GA.
Finally next and stronger frontal boundary setting up over Srn Plains.
Plains trough will move far enough Ewd on Mon and combined with strong high building SEWD from Plains pushes the N GA front SEWD to enter our forecast area and then stalls across FL counties or adjacent waters into Mon night.
However...GFS/NAM differ on solution with NAM much wetter and warmer Mon and especially Mon night. Will lean towards wetter solution at night which is closer to HI RES/local confidence tool.
Sunday and Sunday Night...
Lingering patchy fog past sunrise mainly east...then, the next shortwave races through Sunday. However, absent any deep layer moisture available, at best we can expect a modest increase in clouds. Expect high around 70.
Ahead of approaching boundary...winds at night near calm and PWATs increase to about 0.7 inches. Patchy fog a good bet Sunday night especially east. Expect lows in the mid 40s.
Patchy morning fog may linger to start the day. Weak lift and some mid level moisture ahead of Wrn trough plus proximity of weak front will translate into small chance PoPs for our NW zones during the afternoon. Highs mid 60s North to low 70s SE Big Bend.
Front will move further SWD. Moisture increases with area PWATs above 1 inch.
Wil go with 40-10% NW-SE POP gradient. Dew points increasing into the low to mid 40s inland to 50 at coast and near calm winds favor fog but this may in part be offset by increasing clouds ahead of the next weather system will moderate temps. Lows in the mid to upper 40s.
Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
The long term fairly zonal pattern begins to rapidly shift on Tues
as a positively tilted shortwave trough over Ern Plains ejects Ewd
and move across the SE region amplifying Ern longwave trough.
However latest guidance has slowed down shortwave trough and now it may not cross local area until later on Wed which in turn will delay onset of long wave amplification.
ECMWF and GFS continue to differ with former faster and more aggressive while latter slower and more amplified making temp/POP forecast tricky.
At the surface...slowing down of above feature brings additional
uncertainty in the development...strength and timing of surface low.
Best forecast is that low will develop over Cntrl Gulf by Tues night with cold front Swwd into Gulf and warm front ENE to along Gulf coast.
By Wed low lifts Newd with warm front lifting Nwd over land followed by cold front crossing later in day. Then developing strong cold air wedge sliding down Appalachians at that time will likely shunt low EWD and retard progress of warm boundary.
As a result...guidance now less aggressive for any noted weather
event. With low taking more Srn track...storms much less likely especially over land. So mainly rain with embedded isold Tstms
possible in any warm sector i.e. the marine area.
By Wed eve...low moves off east coast of FL then races NEWD to off NC coast with cold front across Srn FL. However proximity of warm boundary and lingering weak trough will keep at least some POP in forecast into Thurs Ern areas especially if GFS verifies.
Upper flow returns to more zonal while surface high builds in Fri into Sat.
Expect increasing cloudiness Mon - Wed. The combination of cool air wedge to our north plus warm front lifting newd placing increasing area in our warm sector will generate a large temp gradient Tues into Wed.
High Temps Tues mid 50s to low 70s SE Big Bend... Wed low 50s to low 70s...then a warming trend. Thurs 60 to 65...Fri mid to upper 60s and Sat upper 60s to low 70s.
Min temps will remain above freezing each night...generally near 40 north to around 50 south.
Will go with...60-20% POPs Tues...60-30% Tues night...60% Wed... 30-40% Wed night...20-30% Thurs then NIL POPs.
VFR conditions returning to all sites at 19z as low cloud cover finally moves off to the east.
VFR conditions will prevail through about 07z Sunday when fog will begin to develop near VLD and likely spread eastward toward the ABY/TLH terminals.
Expect IFR conditions at VLD and MVFR elsewhere.
Fog should clear out quickly Sunday morning with VFR conditions back by 14z.
Expect light winds and low seas through Tuesday as an area of
high pressure becomes centered near the coastal waters.
Winds and seas will increase again into early Thursday ahead of the next mid week weather system.
Headline criteria except possibly SCEC well offshore Wed-Wed night are not expected.
Dry conditions are expected through Monday.
Relative humidity values will remain high enough that red flag conditions are not anticipated.
The next frontal system will approach the region on Tuesday bringing a good chance of a widespread rain through Wednesday evening.
Drier conditions will return behind this system for the latter part of next week.
Rain this morning across the region was generally around one tenth
to three tenths of an inch. These amounts will not have any
significant impacts on our local rivers.
The Apalachicola River at Blountstown has dropped below action stage and should continue to fall as releases from Woodruff Dam have returned to typical levels.
A more significant rain event is possible around the middle of the
upcoming work week, though details are uncertain because of the fast nature of the current upper level weather pattern.
The WPC 5-day QPF calls for widespread values of around an inch.
While this would cause an increase in area streamflows, even an inch of widespread rainfall would be unlikely to elevate any of our rivers much above action stage.
This thinking also matches with the latest GFS-based output from the MMEFS which shows only the Lower Choctawhatchee River potentially nearing action stage late next week.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 40 71 43 70 48 / 0 0 0 10 30
Panama City 46 67 51 66 53 / 0 0 0 10 30
Dothan 40 69 46 66 44 / 0 0 0 20 40
Albany 38 69 44 67 44 / 0 0 0 10 40
Valdosta 39 69 42 70 46 / 0 0 0 10 30
Cross City 41 71 43 72 47 / 10 0 10 10 10
Apalachicola 45 65 51 65 55 / 0 0 0 10 20