Near Term...[Through Tonight].
Showers and thunderstorms got off to an early start around the Gulf
County coast for much of this morning, with some areas around Cape
San Blas receiving almost 6 inches of rain with rough seas reported
at the coast!
As of early this afternoon, the showers and storms are now on the move to the NE and are propagating much more rapidly inland as of 2-3 pm EDT. For the time being, only have convective tempos in at TLH, ECP, and VLD, but may have to expand these further northward into GA and AL if the convection keeps going.
After sunset, expect the showers and storms to slowly wind down, and after midnight, expect most of the convection to retreat offshore and near the immediate coast of the FL Big Bend and Panhandle, with 20% PoPs over N FL, and 30s over the Coastal Waters and and Coastal counties.
Patchy Fog is also possible, but limited this just to the Tafs at this time.
SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
An upper level trough will continue to dig down the eastern third of
the CONUS reaching north Florida on Monday. A surface cold front
will also be pushing into the southeastern states but not expected
to arrive until after the short term period.
These features combined with daytime heating and the sea breeze will help to generate convection each afternoon. The MAV PoP guidance seems a bit too low so have taken a blend of the MAV and MET showing PoPs in the chance category (30-40%).
Temps will be near or just above seasonal levels.
LONG TERM [Tuesday through Saturday]...
The upper level ridge centered well to our west may briefly build
into our region by mid week. Otherwise, upper level troughing will
remain the dominate weather feature through the period.
A cold front is expected to push into our CWA Wednesday and possibly stall on Thursday. Some drier air may filter into the northern zones by Thursday and Friday.
Expect to see typical summertime diurnal convection largely driven by the sea breeze. Temperatures will stay near or just above seasonal normals.
Aviation...[Through 18Z Sunday]
As mentioned above, have convective tempos at TLH, ECP, and VLD this afternoon, and depending on the life cycle of the Sea Breeze Front, may have to amend DHN and ABY later this afternoon.
For the overnight hours, VFR conditions should begin the night at all
locations, with periods of IFR levels possible a DHN, ABY, and VLD,
with MVFR anticipated at TLH and ECP late tonight and early Sunday
Also, expect no convection at the terminals before 18 UTC.
Outside of any thunderstorms, very light winds and minimal seas are
expected over the coastal waters through most of the upcoming week
with a weak pressure gradient in place.
With plenty of low level moisture still remaining in place despite the passage of a weak cold front, no Fire Weather concerns are expected for the next several days.
The Middle Suwannee River points from Ellaville through Luraville
will crest over the next 36 hours as the Withlacoochee has already
crested through the confluence with the Suwannee. The Alapaha will
be cresting shortly from Jennings on down to its mouth with the
Suwannee near Nobles Ferry. Crests on the Middle Suwannee from
Luraville on up river will be below action stage. Modest rises
from Branford on through the lower portion of the Suwannee
throughout the weekend and early next week will be sufficient to
bring many of the points along the river to at least action stage.
Wilcox at US-19 has the best chance of reaching minor flood stage
Outside of the Suwannee River Basin, all remaining rivers in the
forecast area remain in recession.
The Aucilla River will continue to fall slowly and likely be below flood stage on Monday. The Ochlockonee will be below flood stage later this morning.
On the Apalachicola, forecast releases from Woodruff Dam do look to be just low enough to get Blountstown back below flood stage by morning, though the river will remain in action stage for some time.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 73 92 74 93 72 / 20 40 30 40 30
Panama City 77 88 74 87 74 / 30 40 30 30 20
Dothan 72 92 73 92 72 / 20 40 30 40 30
Albany 72 93 74 93 73 / 20 40 30 40 30
Valdosta 71 92 71 93 72 / 20 40 30 40 30
Cross City 71 91 71 91 71 / 30 40 30 30 20
Apalachicola 76 87 74 88 76 / 30 40 30 30 20