Dothan Area Weather Forecast Update Jul 27

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

18Z surface analysis shows the weak cold front boundary to our W has shifted Sward and the localized area of lower pressure has shifted east to the LA-MS border and is starting to gain a surface circulation. The convection over there is organizing into an
MCS which the models are showing will move Eward along the Gulf
coast toward our area this afternoon and evening. At this time and
through most of the near term period, most of the convection will
lie to our W and we will mostly see showers and thunderstorms
popping up ahead of the main convection in the system. Damaging
winds and heavy rain (which could cause flooding if the storms start
to train or backbuild) will be the main concerns today and tonight.
SPC has outlined an area of 5% chance of severe winds (60+ MPH)
today in the areas where we activity is more likely (SE AL and the
FL Panhandle).

Today will be warm with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s and temps tonight should cool to the low 70s.

SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Tuesday]...

After the very moist and fairly potent shortwave swings through the
the region tonight, reasonably strong Upper level ridging should
provide the CWA with a bonified 3 day period of increasingly hotter
and drier conditions.

With lingering cloudiness and still moist soils, it appears unlikely that Max temps on Sunday will rise to much above climo levels, but highs on Monday and Tuesday could easily top out in the mid 90s away from the coast.

Pops are expected to range in the 30-40% range on Sunday, but reduce to 20-30% on Monday and Tuesday.

LONG TERM [Tuesday Night through Saturday]...

Although Upper level troughing is still expected to be the
predominant Synoptic scale feature across the SE U.S. through the
majority of the extended period, the Global Models appear to be
showing it less vigorous over time at our latitude.

This could result in PoPs and temps closer to climo, with only slightly greater than "normal" unsettled conditions for this very atypical summer.

Additionally, towards the end of the period (Friday and Saturday)
the ECMWF is showing the potential for a rare sighting over the SE,
an Upper level ridge.

AVIATION...

Today will feature VFR conditions under cloudy skies, with the potential for thunderstorms greatest at KDHN and KECP.

There is a possibility for some MVFR ceilings to spread into these areas late in the day and vsbys may drop with storms with the
heaviest rain.

With heavy moisture present, BR is possible tomorrow morning in a fashion similar to this morning with vsbys only going down to around 4SM.

MARINE...

Surface high pressure should continue to dominate over the Marine
area, keeping winds light and seas low.

FIRE WEATHER...

No fire weather concerns.

HYDROLOGY...

There were still several river forecast points lingering in either action stage or minor flood stage.

However, additional rainfall this period is not likely to be widespread and heavy enough to dramatically increase local river flows (with the possible exception of tonight).

The most up-to-date, specific river forecast information can be
found on our local AHPS page at the address listed below.

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee 71 91 72 94 72 / 30 30 20 30 10
Panama City 74 87 75 91 76 / 40 30 20 30 10
Dothan 71 91 70 94 72 / 50 30 10 20 10
Albany 71 91 71 95 71 / 30 30 10 20 10
Valdosta 70 92 69 95 71 / 20 40 20 20 10
Cross City 70 90 68 93 72 / 20 40 20 30 20
Apalachicola 75 86 75 87 76 / 30 30 20 30 10

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.


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