NEAR TERM [Tonight]...
Very dry airmass remains anchored over local area. No POPs. Lack
of clouds will keep Min temps a little cooler than climo. Inland
lows from mid-upper 60s SE Big Bend to around 70 elsewhere.
Possibly some patches of ground fog/haze around sunrise.
SHORT TERM [Monday Through Wednesday]...
The large scale pattern commences Mon morning with a broad H5 ridge dominating Conus with ridge centered over TN Valley. This ridge
flanked by troughs across western states and down extreme Wrn Atlc.
At surface, high off mid-Atlc with ridge Swwd across NE Gulf region.
Locally, all this provides deep NELY flow and subsidence with
forcing near zero.
During Mon, high pressure ridge will shift Ewd. This pushes Atlc
trough Newd while base TUTT forms off FL coast but with local area
remaining on its subsident side as reflected in continued deep NE
flow seen on model soundings. Area PWATS are forecasted to be in the 1.3 to 1.4 inch range. Lingering weak front effectively washes out
and any convection should die off soon after sunset.
On Tues, models guidance and soundings forecast a large area of
sinking, drying air over our region ahead of an advancing TUTT.
Surface high wedges down from mid-Atlc into Srn GA yielding a modest tightening of local gradients. Area PWATS drop to 1.1 to 1.3 inches.
On Wed, TUTT will cross FL Peninsula with slight moisture increase
over FL Coastal counties and mainly marine area. Surface high will
strengthen over SE GA establishing well developed ELY flow.
Will go with isold POPs each day. Expect inland highs generally 90
to 92 degrees.
LONG TERM [Wednesday Night through Sunday...
The large scale pattern commences Wed night with a ridge over
Plains Ewd to Cntrl Gulf, a trough across Nrn tier states and
adjacent Canada and a ridge over extreme Wrn Atlc. At surface,
ridging over NE Gulf. Looking Nwd cold front across upper south.
Locally this provides dry NE steering flow aloft and ELY steering
flow below, thus deep layer subsidence and lack of moisture.
During late Mon-late Thurs, Nrn trough begins to shift Ewd and dig
Swd progressively retrograding upstream trough back towards MS
By Fri aftn, trough axis swd into NE Gulf of Mex with surge of tropical air Nwd boosting PWATS to around 2 inches. This will send weak cold front Swd reaching Srn most GA/AL or possibly to FL/GA border at that time.
Beginning Sat, trough lifts newd with upstream ridge advancing back Ewd. With Atlc ridge holding, local area in weakness between these systems. At surface, high that developed over Srn Great Lake on Fri moves SEWD to Mid-Atlc coast thru weekend.
This pushes cold front to across N FL but absent upper support, it becomes quasi-stnry and weakens a little. It will still serve as the focus for sct convection especially where ENE low level flow clashes with seabreeze over FL. In wake of front, strong high building Swd may temper GA/AL temperatures.
Will go with 20% or less POPs Wed night, then 20-30% Thurs and Fri
then 30-40% Sat and Sun. Max inland temps will hover around 90
Thurs and Fri dipping to the upper 80s Sat and Sun. inland lows
67-70 Wed and Thurs night rising to 69 to 74 Fri and Sat nights.
High VFR will prevail for the rest of today and tonight, except a few hours either side of sunrise where MVFR visibilities in haze/light fog can be expected at several sites. Tomorrow promises more of the same with light winds and high VFR conditions prevailing.
The very weak pressure gradient yielding low winds and seas will
continue through Monday afternoon.
The pressure gradient will increase Monday night and Tuesday as a strong high pressure system builds along the eastern seaboard, and a broad, weak area of low pressure develops in the Bay of Campeche.
Thus east winds and seas will increase to moderate levels, with perhaps some periods of exercise caution levels Tuesday and Wednesday.
No fire weather concerns are expected for the next several days.
Any rain we get over the next several days will be too isolated to
significantly impact the local river stages/flows. The majority of
our rivers were below "action" stage.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 69 92 71 91 70 / 10 20 10 10 10
Panama City 74 89 75 90 74 / 10 20 20 10 10
Dothan 70 92 71 90 69 / 10 20 20 10 10
Albany 70 92 70 90 69 / 10 20 20 10 10
Valdosta 68 90 68 91 69 / 10 20 10 10 10
Cross City 67 91 68 91 69 / 10 20 10 10 20
Apalachicola 73 88 76 88 75 / 10 20 20 10 10