NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
The upper level pattern continues with ridging over the Plains and
troughing along the east coast. At the surface, a weakening,
stationary frontal boundary is located across the northern border of
the forecast area.
For today, although the boundary layer remains moist ahead of the front, upper level dry air continues to move into the area with generally northerly flow aloft. The MOS guidance has very low PoPs for today with the consensus less than 20 percent over most of the area. However, with the presence of the weak frontal boundary and some of the hi-res guidance developing isolated convection in the afternoon, a 20 PoP still seems warranted for at least the southeast third of the forecast area today.
Afternoon temperatures mainly in the lower 90s are expected.
SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...
The 500 mb long wave trough (currently over the U.S. East Coast)
will be replaced by a large anticyclone by Monday afternoon. What
few convective cells there may be this evening will quickly dissipate after sunset as very dry air aloft advects into our forecast area.
With this dry airmass in place we have only 10% PoPs for Sunday, with highs in the lower 90s.
There is some disagreement among the NWP guidance for Monday, at the ECMWF forecasts a somewhat more rapid increase in moisture than the GFS, so we have a 20% PoP as a compromise.
Highs will once again be in the lower 90s.
LONG TERM [Monday Night through Friday]...
The large scale pattern commences fairly benign dominated by deep
layer ridging over all but the Wrn states with high centered over
Srn TN Valley.
At surface, high off mid-Atlc with ridge swwd across NE Gulf region with ESE low level flow and helping to dissipate frontal remnants over Cntrl GA into Atlc.
Little change is expected into Wed and this will advect drier air into our forecast area keeping PoPs below climo.
Then, a trough riding and intensifying Ewd reaches Ern Canada and NE U.S. rapidly deepening down east coast with ridge retrograding rapidly Wwd.
By Fri aftn, base of trough over GA flanked by ridge to our west and Atlc ridge to our east placing local area in weakness. At surface, this serves to progressively break down while digging upper trough drives next albeit weak backdoor cold front into N/Cntrl GA/FL. All this translates to modestly increasing moisture levels and weak synoptic flow.
Will go with 20% or less Tues thru Thurs then 20-30% on Fri.
Inland Highs around 90s on Tues and Wed then low 90s Thurs and
Low ceilings and fog are not expected to be major issues, and VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals.
As drier air continues to move into our region this afternoon, the coverage of showers and thunderstorms will remain very isolated and too low to include in the TAFs at this time.
Winds and seas will remain quite low through Monday with a high
pressure ridge in the vicinity.
They will increase Monday night and Tuesday as a rather strong high pressure ridge builds down the eastern seaboard...possibly approaching exercse caution levels at times.
No fire weather concerns are expected for the next several days.
Most of the area rivers are either below action stage or receding.
The exception was on the lower Suwannee River, where points below
Rock Bluff are nearing a very broad crest.
A stretch of fairly dry weather is expected over the next several days, which will give the local rivers some much-needed time to return toward normal flows.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 93 68 92 69 93 / 10 10 10 10 20
Panama City 90 74 88 75 90 / 10 10 10 10 20
Dothan 91 68 92 70 92 / 10 0 10 10 20
Albany 91 68 93 71 93 / 10 0 10 10 20
Valdosta 93 67 91 68 92 / 20 10 10 10 20
Cross City 92 67 91 67 92 / 20 10 10 10 20
Apalachicola 88 74 86 74 89 / 20 10 10 0 20