NEAR TERM [through Today]...
High pressure centered over New England will continue to ridge
southward into the northern Gulf of Mexico today, while low pressure
northeast of the Bahamas drifts slowly to the northeast
The flow between the two systems will continue to funnel dry air into the region with dew points in the 50s for most areas. Lower 60s dew
points can be expected for the coastal FL counties and this in the
eastern Big Bend.
Max temps will generally be 3-4 degrees below normal, mainly in the lower 80s with a few mid 80s near the coast.
SHORT TERM [Tonight through Monday]...
East-to-northeast flow in the boundary layer will continue from tonight into Sunday on the southern periphery of a low-level anticyclone that will begin to weaken along the east coast.
The influence of the high pressure and associated drier air should
generally limit cloud cover over land areas with slightly cooler than normal temperatures continuing.
Over the marine areas, some light showers may continue as suggested by most of the models.
By Monday, a weakening cold front may approach the region from the
west, possibly allowing for some isolated showers over land areas,
particularly in the western half of our area.
LONG TERM [Monday Night through Saturday]...
A weakening front will pass north of our area between late Sunday
night and Monday. Some of the leftover moisture on the southern end
of the front may stay in the area, leaving some PoPs over the water
through the period.
As a shortwave trough propagates through the weak upper level ridging Thursday-Friday, PoPs increase over land from slight chance (~20%) of thunderstorms Thursday to chance (~30%) on Friday.
Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal, with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s.
AVIATION [through 06 UTC Sunday]...
VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals for the forecast period.
East to northeast winds are forecast, but should remain 12kt or less.
Breezy northeast winds at SCEC levels are likely to continue through tonight.
A weakening of the high pressure ridge along the east coast should allow winds to relax thereafter, with values below 15 knots and subsiding seas.
Despite the drier airmass in place over the region, humidity values
are forecast to remain above 35 percent.
Therefore, red flag conditions are not expected.
High dispersion indices over 75 are expected over the inland counties in the FL Panhandle and Big Bend each day this weekend.
RH values will gradually increase through the upcoming work week.
The Choctawhatchee River has crested at Caryville with rises to
action stage still ongoing at Bruce.
Neither of these points are expected to reach flood stage with the crest expected on Monday at Bruce.
With no significant rainfall expected for the next several days, no flood problems are anticipated.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 60 85 64 85 68 / 0 0 10 20 20
Panama City 64 83 69 84 72 / 10 0 10 30 30
Dothan 56 81 62 83 66 / 0 0 10 30 20
Albany 57 81 62 84 66 / 0 0 10 20 10
Valdosta 59 85 63 85 67 / 0 10 10 20 10
Cross City 62 86 63 85 68 / 10 10 10 30 20
Apalachicola 67 83 70 83 72 / 10 10 10 30 20