NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
A rather complex surface pattern has evolved near the local area
this afternoon. The onset of a large area of stratiform rain generated a positive PV anomaly and resultant mesoscale low pressure
circulation south of the Pensacola area. Since that time, the negative response (or mesoscale high pressure circulation) has formed south of Apalachicola. This has had a rather significant impact on the surface front. The limited forward motion of the meso-low has prevented the front from continuing southeast this afternoon.
Instead, the latest subjective analysis would suggest the front has nudged back to the north a bit. The consensus is that the low will be able to make some forward progression later this afternoon through the northern Gulf. This will likely pull the front southeast back through SE Alabama and portions of the Florida Panhandle, but further east it should hold the front a bit further north across south Georgia.
Once the mesoscale features weaken later tonight, high pressure will build south across the eastern part of the country and lay the front out in a more uniform west to east fashion across the Tri-State region. Thus, rain chances will remain rather high through tonight.
Expect generally light rain the further north you go, and heavier rain near the meso-low/high and any subsequent banding features that develop. In areas of heavy rain it is not impossible to expect isolated amounts of 2 to 3 inches depending on stormscale motions. In general though, expect widespread averages to remain near an inch or below.
One other point to mention, there is some indication that we may see
some gusty winds later this evening, but these will likely reside near the meso-low, so where exactly these winds will be realized is a bit uncertain and depends highly on the low track. Right now the best guess is that occasional gusts to 30 mph or so will be possible over the northern Gulf, and possibly into portions of north Florida if the low moves far enough north.
SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
Frontal boundary is forecast to become diffuse on Monday as
shortwave ridging builds briefly over the region.
However, there should be enough lingering moisture and low-level convergence for some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially near the coast and over the coastal waters.
By Tuesday, a trough will slide east into the Ohio Valley and help to re-activate what is left of the frontal boundary. This should lead to another round of moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall late Tuesday into Tuesday night.
With plenty of cloud cover expected and light east to northeast flow through midweek, expect high temperatures to hold in the mid 80s for most locations, very close to climo for late September.
LONG TERM [Wednesday through Sunday]...
Upper trough is forecast to exit the east coast during the day on
Wednesday, which should push the bulk of the forcing for precip
off the east coast as well.
Thus, expect rainfall to taper off from west to east during the day.
For the latter half of the week, a significant ridge is forecast to develop from the central Gulf Coast northward into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, high pressure centered over New England will nose down the eastern seaboard into the northeastern Gulf.
This should allow for a progressively cooler and drier airmass to push into the region by late in the week, with noticeably cooler high temperatures and pleasant morning lows.
AVIATION [Beginning 17Z Sunday]...
Stubborn MVFR ceilings have stuck around for most of the day. Expect
on-and-off scattering to VFR through the remainder of the afternoon,
before solid MVFR ceilings return later tonight.
Would expect the low ceilings to stick around for much of the day tomorrow as well.
A frontal boundary will settle south over the waters tonight and weaken on Monday.
Light and variable winds Monday morning will become easterly and increase slightly Monday night as high pressure builds north of the waters.
Weak low pressure will pass across the waters by the middle of the week.
At this time, winds are forecast to remain below headline criteria.
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected in the
Roughly 1 to 3 inches of rain has fallen across the region this
weekend, with the highest amounts close to the coast.
Over the next several days, another 2 to 3 inches will be possible with
locally higher amounts. This will be enough to generate minor
rises on area rivers.
With the current forecast, river flooding appears unlikely.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 72 86 71 86 73 / 60 40 30 50 60
Panama City 74 87 75 85 73 / 60 40 30 60 60
Dothan 67 87 69 86 68 / 30 30 20 50 60
Albany 67 85 67 85 70 / 30 20 10 30 60
Valdosta 71 84 68 86 72 / 80 40 20 40 60
Cross City 76 86 70 86 72 / 90 60 40 60 50
Apalachicola 79 85 77 84 76 / 80 50 40 60 60