NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
The type 4 sea breeze day, characterized by a light to moderate
1000-700 mb Mean Layer Vector Wind out of the SW or WSW like today (which was reflected well in this morning`s TAE sounding) has
certainly increased the convective activity across the interior, so
ended up raising PoPs to 60 to 70 percent for the bulk of the
interior of the CWA for the remainder of the afternoon (ending at 00
UTC). The highest PoPs and heaviest rain is and has been falling
across much of the FL Big Bend and Panhandle, as well as Houston and Geneva counties in SE AL.
Due to the very active mid-afternoon, expect lower PoPs during the evening hours after 00 UTC, ranging from 20 to 40% until about 03 to 04 UTC. After 06Z, reverted most of the region to silent 10s, with the 20-30% PoPs limited to the nearshore waters and Coastal zones from Gulf County eastward to Taylor.
SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
The upper level trough will briefly deamplify Wednesday allowing
weak ridging to build in. This will be short lived as the models show the trough becoming reestablished into our area by the end of the period. An approaching cold front should stay to the north of the CWA but will be close enough generate additional convection, especially Tuesday when deeper moisture and greater instability will be present.
Will show PoPs in the mid chance to good chance category for Tuesday.
As the trough lifts out Wednesday, we also dry out a bit in the mid levels so PoPs will be tapered down into the lower chance range. Temps will be near to slightly above climo.
LONG TERM [Thursday through Monday]...
Upper troughing will continue down the eastern seaboard through
Sunday before ridging builds in from the west early next week. The
aforementioned cold front will drop down into our CWA Thursday
becoming quasi-stationary Friday into Saturday. Will keep PoPs in
the chance category each day with temps near seasonal levels.
AVIATION...[Through 18 UTC Tuesday]
It now appears that most of the terminals are out of the woods for additional showers and storms today, except for DHN which may have to be amended as a new strong Cell with very heavy rainfall has formed in Houston County.
Once all of the showers and storms come to and end this evening, VFR conditions should return until late tonight, where periods of IFR to LIFR are expected once again at most if not all of the Taf Sites until early to mid Tuesday morning.
Outside of any thunderstorms, and with a weak pressure gradient in
place, very light winds and minimal seas are expected over the
coastal waters through most of the upcoming week.
Relative humidity is expected to remain well above critical thresholds for the next several days.
Outside of the Suwannee River Basin, all rivers in the forecast area
remain in recession.
The Aucilla River will continue to fall slowly and likely be below flood stage at Lamont on Wednesday. The Middle Suwannee River points from Ellaville through Luraville have crested or will shortly, well below action stage. Modest rises from Branford on through the lower portion of the Suwannee will continue throughout the week from Wilcox on down to the Gulf of Mexico Entrance. These rises will bring the river points from Wilcox through Fowler`s Bluff to at least action stage this week. Wilcox at US19 has the best chance of reaching flood stage late in the week with a lesser chance further downriver at Fowler`s Bluff.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 74 94 73 94 72 / 20 40 30 30 30
PANAMA CITY 76 91 76 91 75 / 20 30 20 30 30
DOTHAN 73 93 72 93 72 / 30 50 20 30 20
ALBANY 74 94 73 95 72 / 40 50 30 30 20
VALDOSTA 72 93 73 94 72 / 20 50 30 30 30
CROSS CITY 73 92 71 94 72 / 20 40 30 30 30
APALACHICOLA 76 89 73 89 76 / 30 30 20 30 30