NEAR TERM [through Tonight]...
Isolated to scattered convection is still expected to develop late this afternoon into the evening hours.
So far, dry air aloft has limited the CU field, but most of the available hi-res guidance anticipated a late start to the convection and still develops isolated to scattered activity late in the day.
Fairly steep mid-level lapse rates as seen on the 12z KTAE and KTBW soundings could allow for a stronger storm or two as well, but nothing widespread is expected.
Convection could linger for a few hours after sunset, but it should mostly be dissipated over land by midnight. Over the coastal waters, convection could occur at any time during the overnight hours, and some of the hi-res guidance indicates some strong convective wind gusts are possible offshore.
SHORT TERM [Monday through Wednesday]...
A rather flat, east-west oriented 500 mb ridge will persist over the
Gulf Coast, so we don`t expect much in the way of Q-G forcing.
However, the thermodynamics, though not extremely favorable, will be
sufficient to support stronger moist updrafts driven by mesoscale
forcing like sea breeze and outflow boundary interactions.
The NWP guidance consensus PoP is generally 20 to 30%, which is near the climatological value.
High temperatures will be a few degrees above climo (lower 90s as opposed to upper 80s), and lows will be near climo (around 70 deg).
LONG TERM [Wed night through next Sunday]
The GFS and ECMWF keep the stronger more amplified 500 mb flow well to our north through the period.
Our forecast area will be situated to the east of a weak 500 mb ridge, though this may change by next weekend.
The GFS forecasts a weak frontal passage next Sunday or Sunday night while the ECMWF shifts the ridge position off the Southeast coast.
Despite these differences, our temperature and PoP forecast is unlikely to be affected that much. The PoP will be near climo (generally in the 20-30% range), as will temperatures.
Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period outside of isolated to scattered convection this afternoon into this evening.
Some brief patchy fog and/or low clouds could also occur for a few hours around dawn.
An interesting marine forecast is shaping up, beginning this evening.
While the large scale models show fairly low winds & seas, the Convection Allowing Models (CAM) are forecasting gale force winds to surge over Apalachee Bay this evening, as the FL east coast sea breeze (and associated deep moist convection) emerge off the NW
We don`t forecast storm scale winds, but this could be a cross between mesoscale and storm scale, which isn`t uncommon this
time of year when the FL east coast sea breeze passes through in the
We increased the winds and waves over the global model values (between 00 UTC and 06 UTC), but keep them below advisory levels as we suspect the CAM winds may be overdone. However, this will have to be monitored closely this evening.
The next item of interest is the potential for higher surf (and rip
current risk) late tonight and Monday, as the forerunners (i.e., longest period swell) from Ingrid reach the NW FL coast.
Our local surf algorithm has 3 to 4 ft breakers (with a few higher sets
possible) Monday, then gradually diminishing Monday night and
These swell will travel northeastward, while the smaller, short-period waves will travel west.
Finally, winds and seas may reach exercise caution levels mid week as yet another high pressure system builds along the U.S. eastern seaboard and a broad low pressure system develops in the NW Caribbean.
No fire weather concerns are expected for the next several days.
Ample boundary layer moisture will support locally heavy rain rates the next few days, but deep moist convection will be too isolated to significantly impact local rivers.
The rivers continue to recede from this summer`s frequent and heavy rains.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 71 92 72 90 71 / 30 30 20 20 20
Panama City 75 89 76 90 75 / 30 30 20 20 10
Dothan 70 91 70 91 70 / 40 20 20 20 10
Albany 71 91 71 89 70 / 40 20 20 20 20
Valdosta 70 95 70 93 69 / 30 30 20 30 20
Cross City 69 92 70 91 69 / 20 30 20 30 20
Apalachicola 76 88 77 88 77 / 20 30 20 20 20