NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
The shortwave trough over the eastern part of the country will begin to dampen locally this afternoon as the main energy pulls northeast and begins to absorb into the mean northern stream flow.
With little in the way of synoptic scale forcing, and below average moisture profiles, do not expect any sort of robust convection this afternoon. Instead we will rely on enhanced low level convergence near the surface front to generate scattered showers and isolated storms later today. This morning, the front remains draped southwest to northeast across our SE Alabama counties, through Albany and Fitzgerald.
Expect the front to slide a bit further south through the early morning and afternoon, allowing the focus for storms to be primarily across north Florida. Further, the best coverage of storms will likely be east
of the Apalachicola river and relatively close to the coast.
Although the thermal gradient is rather strong behind the front,
the driest and coolest air will remain north of the Tri-State region. Though, it should feel rather pleasant across the northern portions of our Alabama and Georgia counties where relative humidity levels may dip to around 40% with afternoon highs around 90 degrees. Further south though expect lower 90s, but with higher relative humidities making it feel like the middle to even upper 90s in the warmest spots.
SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...
Stalled frontal boundary will quickly dissipate by Sunday as the upper trough along the east coast weakens and an upper ridge builds in from the west.
Low-level flow will be out of the east or southeast on Sunday and Monday with surface high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic. Despite the boundary dissipating, the east to southeast flow should keep the low-levels just moist enough to allow for isolated to scattered afternoon storms, especially for the eastern Big Bend.
With the ridge aloft, temperatures will remain warm through Monday, with highs in the lower 90s.
LONG TERM [Monday Night through Friday]...
An upper level ridge will be building into the southern US from late Sunday and into Monday. In combination with a strengthening surface high pressure ridge along the eastern seaboard, this should create an interval of days early in the work week (Monday- Wednesday) with relatively suppressed convection (PoPs around 20%) and warm afternoons (highs around 90 to the lower 90s).
Better chances of rain are possible towards the end of the week as the upper level ridge begins to break down, but that is less certain.
AVIATION [Through 06Z Sunday]...
VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF, outside of any
afternoon storms. Storms will be most likely at KTLH and KVLD, but
should be rather isolated.
Pressure gradient will be very weak over the coastal waters today,
with light winds and minimal seas expected.
By Sunday into early next week, high pressure will build north of the waters with increasing easterly flow.
Winds and seas should remain below headline criteria through mid-week.
However, seas offshore could reach 4 feet by late Tuesday or Wednesday.
Long period swells from Tropical Storm Ingrid may reach the coastal waters through the early part of the week as well.
Although drier air will slip into our northern Georgia and Alabama counties this afternoon, relative humidity levels will remain above critical thresholds. Dispersions will also remain in an acceptable range.
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected in the foreseeable future.
Downward water level trends will continue for the next several days as neither significant nor widespread rainfall is anticipated.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 93 71 93 71 92 / 30 20 20 10 20
Panama City 90 75 90 75 90 / 20 10 20 10 20
Dothan 89 67 91 71 91 / 0 10 20 10 20
Albany 89 68 91 71 92 / 0 10 20 10 20
Valdosta 92 69 91 70 91 / 20 20 30 10 20
Cross City 92 70 91 70 92 / 20 20 30 20 30
Apalachicola 89 76 88 76 88 / 30 10 20 10 20