NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
12z surface analysis shows a weak frontal boundary pushing into
our area from the north. The 12z sounding shows a significant
amount of dry air has moved in between 500 and 700 mb levels.
Expecting max temperatures to reach into mid 90s for most
locations and given the thermodynamic profile, thunderstorms will
remain suppressed until very late in the afternoon. The best PoP
chances (30%) will be nearest the frontal location in our southern
Alabama and Georgia counties.
SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...
The weekend will offer a transition from deep layer troughing to
ridging. On Saturday, expect the aforementioned front to remain
draped across the Tri-State region, but weakening. With a narrow
ribbon of moisture still available, we should be able to squeeze
out scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Most storms will remain confined to north Florida, or the immediate Tri-State border.
By Sunday, the front will have completely washed out locally and
deep layer dry air will overtake the region. This will severely limit PoPs to an isolated nature, if that. Temperatures will remain near seasonal averages through the weekend, though feeling like the middle 90s.
LONG TERM [Sunday Night through Thursday]...
A fairly benign weather pattern will persist through the long term
period. Deep layer ridging builds over the northern Atlantic,
thus keeping our forecast area along the southern periphery of the
This translates to deep layer easterly flow through the period.
Model guidance is in good agreement that our area will be under a dry air mass, especially at the mid levels. Therefore, we have maintained near or slightly below climatological PoPs and temperatures through the period.
Conditions should remain VFR through the period with a chance of vicinity thunderstorms by 21z for our northern terminals
Light winds and relatively low seas will prevail under a weak pressure pattern for the next couple of days.
By the end of the weekend, winds will increase between the eastern U.S. surface ridge and a tropical disturbance in the Bay of Campeche.
Seas will likely peak around 4 feet on Tuesday associate with southerly swell from the tropical system.
However, with an easterly wind swell dominating by mid-week, do not expect seas to subside rather quickly.
A relatively dry airmass will be in place across the region through
Saturday. However, relative humidity values are expected to remain
above critical values.
Downward water level trends will continue for the next several days as neither significant nor widespread rainfall is anticipated.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 95 71 92 71 91 / 20 20 30 20 20
Panama City 90 74 90 74 89 / 10 20 20 10 20
Dothan 93 68 90 69 90 / 30 30 20 10 10
Albany 94 68 90 69 90 / 30 30 20 10 10
Valdosta 94 69 92 69 90 / 20 30 40 20 20
Cross City 92 70 92 69 91 / 20 20 30 20 20
Apalachicola 89 74 88 74 87 / 10 20 20 10 20
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